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What will the median home value in the US be on May 31?
polymarket

What will the median home value in the US be on May 31?

Volume:
$6,938

<432k

 - Polymarket

<432k - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<432k

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,956
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

438 - 440k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

432 - 434k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$946
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

436 - 438k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$655
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>445k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$633
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

440 - 442k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$438
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

434 - 436k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

442 - 445k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether the median home value across all US property types will remain below $432,000 on May 31, 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—median home value under $432,000—stands at 88.5%, while the probability of the median falling between $432,000 and $434,000 is 6.0%. Resolution will be determined by official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States, calculated by multiplying the published price-per-square-foot index by 2,000 (the median US home square footage). Watch for Parcl's data release scheduled for May 31, 2026, which will serve as the definitive settlement source.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the median US home value prediction on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of the top outcome—currently that the median home value will fall between $432,000 and $434,000 on May 31—alongside live price movements and market depth. The dashboard updates 24-hour trading volume at $3,486, total event volume at $6,938, and historical price trends. This gives traders and analysts a complete view of how the market is pricing US housing valuations heading into the resolution date.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, when the actual median US home value for that date becomes available. Resolution is determined by official housing data released by authoritative sources tracking national median home prices. The outcome that matches the official figure—or the range containing it—is declared correct, and traders holding winning shares receive payouts proportional to their position size. Until that date, prices remain fluid and reflect evolving expectations about housing market conditions.

Several key catalysts could shift market pricing before May 31. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and inflation data directly influence mortgage affordability and buyer demand. Housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales reports reveal supply-demand dynamics. Economic recession or strong GDP growth alters household purchasing power. Regional real estate trends, employment figures, and wage growth also matter. Major policy changes affecting housing supply or demand—such as zoning reform or tax incentives—could reprrice expectations. Each data release provides new information that traders incorporate, moving the probability of different valuation ranges up or down.