TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on May 31?
polymarket

What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on May 31?

Volume:
$7,077

1.173 - 1.18m

 - Polymarket

1.173 - 1.18m - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1.173 - 1.18m

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<1.166m

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,113
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.18 - 1.187m

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$880
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.194 - 1.209m

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.187 - 1.194m

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$636
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>1.209m

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$565
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.166 - 1.173m

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$508
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks the median home value across all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area, expressed as a specific price range. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that the median home value will fall between $1,173,000 and $1,180,000—stands at 46.0%, while the second outcome of $1,166,000 to $1,173,000 is at 30.0%. Resolution will be determined by official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area, with settlement calculated by multiplying the published price index by 1900 square feet, the median home size in the region. Watch for Parcl's data release on May 31, 2026, as this will directly determine the market outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the median home value prediction on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area will fall below $1,166,000 by May 31, along with historical price movements and market depth. The platform has accumulated $7,077 in total trading volume on this event. Traders use this dashboard to monitor shifting sentiment about LA real estate valuations and identify entry and exit points based on live market data and recent trading patterns.

This market resolves on May 31, 2026, at which point the actual median home value for the Los Angeles Metro area as of that date will be determined and compared against the $1,166,000 threshold. The resolution hinges on official housing data released by authoritative sources tracking LA metro real estate values. Traders should monitor announcements from major real estate indices and government housing reports as the resolution date approaches. The binary outcome will be settled based on whether the median value falls below or meets or exceeds the specified threshold.

Several catalysts could shift market odds before May 31, 2026. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions directly impact mortgage affordability and buyer demand in LA. Major economic data releases on inflation, employment, and consumer confidence influence housing sentiment. Regional supply shocks, such as new inventory announcements or development news, can alter price expectations. Geopolitical or macroeconomic crises may trigger flight-to-safety or risk-off behavior affecting real estate. Additionally, significant local policy changes, demographic shifts, or unexpected shifts in tech sector employment in Southern California could reshape valuations. Traders monitor all these signals to adjust positions.