TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on May 31?
polymarket

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on May 31?

Volume:
$4,463

484 - 487k

 - Polymarket

484 - 487k - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

484 - 487k

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$859
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

>492k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

487 - 492k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$395
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<472k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

478 - 481k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$316
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

475 - 478k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

481 - 484k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

472 - 475k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether the median home value across all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area will exceed $492,000 by late May 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—median home value above $492,000—stands at 54.0%, while the outcome for values between $487,000 and $492,000 is at 42.6%. Resolution will be determined by official Parcl Labs Sales Price Index data for the Austin Metro area, calculated using the published price per square foot multiplied by 2,100 square feet (the median home size). Watch for Parcl's data release on May 31, 2026, which will settle this market.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the median home value prediction on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that the Austin metro median home value will exceed $492,000 by May 31, along with historical price movements and cumulative trading volume. Users can monitor how market sentiment shifts as new housing data, interest rate announcements, and local economic indicators emerge. The dashboard provides transparency into collective forecaster expectations, showing $4,463 in total group volume to date.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, at which point the actual median home value for the Austin, Texas metro area as of that date will be determined and compared to the $492,000 threshold. Resolution hinges on official data from authoritative housing sources that track metro-area median prices. Traders should monitor announcements from major real estate databases and local housing authorities as the end date approaches to understand which data source will be used for final settlement.

Several catalysts could shift market odds before May 31. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions directly impact mortgage affordability and buyer demand in Austin. Major employer announcements or relocations to the metro area would signal sustained population inflow and housing demand. Quarterly housing inventory reports, new home starts, and median price releases from the National Association of Realtors provide real-time market signals. Economic recession fears or unexpected job losses could dampen appreciation. Local policy changes affecting zoning or development also influence supply and pricing. Traders actively reassess probabilities as each data point arrives.