TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 3, 9:01 PM EST
Kalshi
During a primary debate for a special election, candidates will address various policy issues and current events. The focus is on whether specific phrases or topics are mentioned by any participant during the officially broadcasted debate.
The event will resolve based on whether any participating candidate mentions specified phrases during the South Carolina Republican U.S. Senate Special Election Primary Debate, provided the debate is officially broadcasted live and candidates speak in an official capacity. Video and official transcripts serve as primary evidence. If the debate is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise fails to meet qualification criteria, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others to No. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open.
While analyst forecasts may draw from polls and historical trends, this market reflects the real-time betting sentiment of traders who react instantly to news, polling shifts, and campaign dynamics. Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst predictions, especially when unexpected events or strong debate performances occur, making this market a complementary — sometimes contrarian — indicator of expected outcomes.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. After the debate transcript and media coverage are finalized, the market settles based on whether specific candidate statements match the defined criteria, closing the market on the exact wording and context recorded by independent sources.
Key signals include released debate transcripts, candidate preparation leaks, major endorsements, and polling updates. Events like gaffes or policy announcements leading up to Aug 18, 2026 can shift trader sentiment quickly. Media coverage of candidate momentum and any rule changes to the debate format may also cause rapid price swings as the market approaches its resolution date.