TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 21, 12:05 PM EST
Kalshi
During a political debate among candidates, specific phrases may be mentioned that reflect key issues or concerns. The occurrence of certain terms can indicate the focus areas or priorities of the candidates, shedding light on the topics they deem important for discussion.
The event involves multiple markets, each centered around whether participating candidates mention specific phrases during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate. For each market to qualify, the debate must occur and be open to the press for live broadcast or streaming. Resolution relies primarily on video footage, with transcripts used if video consensus cannot be reached. Only official statements during the debate count—inaudible or unofficial remarks do not qualify. If the debate is canceled, postponed beyond 14 days, or otherwise unable to proceed normally, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements announced within one day and rescheduled within 14 days allow markets to remain open.
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often captures nuanced expectations that aren’t fully reflected in traditional polling. Traders react to detailed developments, such as recent polling trends or candidate momentum, which can cause odds to shift differently than broader analyst predictions. The current pricing may therefore diverge from or align with those forecasts depending on emerging signals in the lead-up to the debate.
This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the debate has concluded and statements are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will compare the actual statements made during the debate against the market’s defined outcomes, closing the market based on what was publicly observed.
Key signals that could shift this market include recent polling updates, candidate controversies or gaffes, changes in campaign strategy, and media coverage leading up to the debate. Any development that alters perceptions of which candidates are likely to make specific statements may cause traders to adjust odds, especially as the event draws nearer.