TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 12, 6:20 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks specific words and phrases that official broadcast commentators may say during the Red Sox vs Mets professional baseball game scheduled for July 11, 2026. Commentators include play-by-play announcers, color commentators, rules analysts, and sideline reporters whose commentary is captured from the first pitch through the conclusion of the final inning, including extra innings if applicable.
Resolution is based on whether official broadcast commentators use specific target words or phrases during the Red Sox vs Mets baseball game. The event encompasses 17 distinct word/phrase targets including baseball-specific terminology (Bases Loaded, Error, Pitch Clock, Bunt/Bunted, Extra Inning, Wild Pitch, Grand Slam, Walk Off, Pinch Hitter/Pinch Hit, What a Catch, No Hitter, Sweep/Swept, Rob/Robbed, Shutout), player names (Ohtani), general sports terms (MVP, Trade/Traded), and venue references (Citi Field). Commentary counting begins following the first pitch and ends once the game concludes, including extra innings, but stops after the final inning concludes or following an umpire decision if the final play is under review. Only commentary from official broadcast team members counts; player, coach, umpire, guest, and halftime reporter commentary is excluded. Commercials are excluded, but promotional content within the broadcast counts. The exact word or its plural/possessive forms must be used; grammatical/tense inflections alone do not qualify. Resolution uses the national broadcast if available; otherwise the home team local broadcast is used. Resolution uses video primarily, with official transcripts as backup if consensus cannot be reached. If the game is cancelled or fails to qualify, all word/phrase markets resolve to No and the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs and often diverge meaningfully from traditional analyst commentary. While sports analysts and broadcasters may offer subjective opinions about likely talking points, this market prices those same statements through real-money incentives, which tend to reward accuracy over entertainment value. Traders incorporate game context, historical announcer patterns, and breaking news faster than published forecasts update. When this market's odds differ significantly from expert predictions, it often signals either that analysts underestimated a catalyst or that traders are pricing in information not yet reflected in public commentary.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book matching, where buyers and sellers set bid-ask spreads around their perceived probability of each announcer statement. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders submit limit orders specifying the price they will accept, and the platform executes trades when orders cross. Prices naturally gravitate toward equilibrium as new information arrives and participant conviction shifts. The tighter the spread between bid and ask, the more confident the market consensus; wider spreads suggest genuine disagreement about likelihood or lower trading interest in that particular outcome.
This market resolves around Jul 25, 2026, once the Red Sox vs Mets game concludes and broadcast commentary can be reviewed. The outcome is confirmed by comparing actual announcer statements against the specific phrases or topics defined in each market option. Resolution relies on credible public sources, including official broadcast recordings and reputable sports media coverage. Traders should monitor the game broadcast directly or follow real-time summaries to anticipate which statements are most likely to occur, as resolution typically follows within hours of game completion.
Key catalysts include lineup announcements, injury updates, and recent team performance trends that broadcasters typically emphasize. Unexpected trades or roster moves in the days before the game often trigger sharp price moves, as announcers will likely reference them. Weather conditions, historical matchup narratives, and individual player milestones also influence what commentators highlight. Breaking news about player controversies or playoff implications can shift probabilities for statements about team dynamics. As game time approaches, live pregame shows and official team statements provide fresh information that traders incorporate into final odds.