TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 27, 3:50 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks specific phrases spoken by official broadcast commentators during a professional baseball game between New York Y and Philadelphia. The resolution depends on whether certain exact terms or phrases appear in the commentary, with specific criteria for what counts as valid commentary.
The market resolves based on whether any official broadcast commentator—defined as play-by-play, color commentator, rules analyst, or sideline reporter—uses specified exact phrases during the game. Commentary considered valid begins after the first pitch and ends following the conclusion of the final inning, with special rules for games in review or extra innings. National broadcast commentary is used for resolution; if unavailable, the home team's local broadcast applies. Commercials are excluded, but promotional content within the broadcast counts. Commentary from non-broadcast personnel such as players, coaches, referees, guests, or halftime reporters does not qualify. Resolution primarily uses video of the game, with official transcripts serving as a backup if video consensus cannot be reached among Kalshi employees. If the event is postponed within 14 calendar days and announced by the end of the following calendar day, markets remain open. If the event is definitively canceled or fails to qualify, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. Analysts may focus on historical trends and team performance, while traders react to breaking news, player injuries, and even weather conditions. This can lead to divergence, especially when unexpected events occur. Monitoring both sources helps you see where public sentiment and expert analysis align or differ as the game approaches.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders manually set prices based on their assessment of what will be said by announcers during the game. The top outcome’s current chance reflects the aggregated bets of all participants. Liquidity can vary, so checking volume of $235,823 helps gauge how confident traders are in each possible type of commentary. Prices update continuously as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Aug 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the game’s broadcast is publicly available and verifiable from credible reporting. The exact determination depends on reviewing the recorded commentary against the defined categories. After the game concludes, the result is finalized based on widely accepted sources, ensuring transparency for all participants.
Key signals that could shift this market include major player injuries, lineup changes, weather delays, or controversial plays that might generate notable commentary. Media previews, analyst discussions, and even pre-game ceremonies can also influence trader sentiment. As the game nears, any development that changes expectations about what announcers will emphasize — from strategic analysis to humorous remarks — may cause rapid price adjustments on Kalshi.