TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 20, 1:52 PM EST
Kalshi
During the Dodgers vs Yankees game scheduled for July 19, 2026, resolution depends on whether official broadcast commentators (play-by-play, color commentators, rules analysts, or sideline reporters) mention specific words or phrases during their commentary. The broadcast used for resolution will be the national broadcast, or the Yankees' home broadcast if not nationally televised.
Resolution is determined by monitoring commentary from official broadcast team members during the Dodgers vs Yankees game scheduled for July 19, 2026. Each market tracks whether a specific word or phrase is mentioned: MVP, Ohtani, Trade/Traded, Bases Loaded, Error, Pitch Clock, Bunt/Bunted, Extra Inning, Wild Pitch, Grand Slam, Walk Off, Pinch Hitter/Pinch Hit, What a Catch, No Hitter, Sweep/Swept, Rob/Robbed, Shutout, or Yankee Stadium. The exact word or its plural/possessive form must be used; grammatical or tense variations alone do not qualify. Commentary counting begins following the first pitch and continues through game conclusion, including extra innings if applicable. Commentary ends once the final inning concludes; if the final play is under review, counting ends following the umpire's decision. Only commentary from official broadcast team members qualifies—commentary from players, coaches, umpires, guests, or halftime reporters does not count. Commercial breaks do not count, but promotional content within the game broadcast does. Resolution uses video of the broadcast as primary evidence; official transcripts serve as secondary evidence if video consensus cannot be reached. If the game is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days with announcement by the following day, markets remain open. If the event is cancelled or fails to qualify, all markets resolve to No and the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts operate on different methodologies. Analysts typically rely on historical commentary patterns, broadcaster tendencies, and game context to estimate probabilities, while this market aggregates real-money trades from many participants with direct financial incentives to be accurate. Prediction markets often incorporate breaking information faster than published analyst reports, since traders can adjust positions instantly. However, both approaches have merit: analysts bring domain expertise and narrative reasoning, whereas markets reflect distributed knowledge and immediate price discovery. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus is strong or where outlier views command meaningful backing.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific announcer statements. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome is quoted as a decimal price between 0 and 1, reflecting the market's implied probability. Traders profit by correctly predicting which phrases will be mentioned; prices move in real time as new orders flow in and existing positions are closed. The bid-ask spread tightens as volume increases, making it cheaper to trade during peak activity windows. Settlement occurs after the game concludes and outcomes are verified.
This market resolves around Aug 2, 2026, once the game concludes and broadcast commentary can be reviewed. The outcome is determined by verifying which announcer statements were actually made during the live broadcast, confirmed against credible public sources such as official game recordings or reputable sports media transcripts. Traders holding shares in outcomes that match the verified commentary receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process typically completes within hours of the final out, allowing quick settlement and payout distribution to winning participants.
Several factors can shift odds before the game begins and during play. Pre-game announcements about lineup changes, injuries, or weather conditions may alter broadcaster talking points and thus trader expectations. Once the game starts, early momentum—such as a home run or pitching change—can trigger commentary patterns that traders anticipate, moving prices for related outcomes. Breaking news about player performance or milestone achievements often prompts announcers to reference specific statistics or historical context, creating real-time repricing. Late-inning drama and close scores can also influence which phrases broadcasters emphasize, causing final-hour volatility as traders adjust positions based on unfolding events.