TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 13, 4:45 PM EST
Kalshi
A professional baseball game between two teams is played, with broadcasters potentially mentioning various baseball-related terms and phrases during commentary.
Resolution is determined by whether play-by-play or color commentators use the exact phrase or word, including plural or possessive forms, during the game broadcast. Commentary counting begins following the first pitch and continues through game conclusion, including extra innings if applicable. Commentary ends following the umpire's decision if the final play is under review. The national broadcast is used for resolution; if unavailable, the home team's local broadcast applies. Promotional content aired during the event counts, but advertisements do not. Previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings from separate times, places, or events are excluded. Video of the game is the primary resolution source; if consensus cannot be reached, official internal and external transcripts are used. If the game is cancelled or fails to qualify, or if postponement is announced beyond 14 calendar days, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes and all other markets resolve to No. If postponed within 14 calendar days, markets remain open.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations for specific announcer mentions, while traditional analyst forecasts rely on expert opinion and historical commentary patterns. Markets often incorporate live game dynamics, player performance, and momentum shifts faster than published analyst predictions. For this Diamondbacks vs Reds event, comparing market-implied probabilities to pre-game analyst commentary can reveal whether traders expect unusual or routine announcer focus, helping identify where expert consensus diverges from market pricing.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Announcer mention outcomes on Kalshi are priced as binary or multi-outcome contracts reflecting the probability traders assign to specific statements being made during the Diamondbacks vs Reds broadcast. Each outcome has a separate price between 0 and 100 cents, with higher prices indicating stronger market belief. Traders buy or sell contracts based on their conviction about which phrases, player names, or game situations the announcers will highlight, with prices updating continuously as new information and game events emerge.
The market resolves on Jun 26, 2026, after the Diamondbacks vs Reds game concludes and broadcast commentary is reviewed. Resolution depends on whether specific announcer statements were made during the live game broadcast. Outcomes are determined by verifying the actual language and phrases used by the broadcast announcers, ensuring that only statements genuinely spoken during the game trigger winning positions. The exact resolution criteria are detailed in the market terms.
Key catalysts include player injuries or roster changes that shift announcer focus, game momentum swings that prompt commentary on specific teams or players, and pre-game storylines that broadcasters emphasize. Weather conditions, home-run records, or milestone achievements during the game can trigger targeted mentions. Trading volume and market sentiment may also shift if public prediction or social media discussion highlights likely announcer talking points. Real-time game events—runs scored, defensive plays, or pitcher changes—directly influence which topics announcers prioritize on air.