TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$143,246,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,452,035,386
405,032
Markets across
30,543
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,690
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 26, 11:00 PM EST
Kalshi
During the Cubs vs Brewers game scheduled for June 26, 2026, play-by-play and color commentators may mention various baseball terms, player names, and game situations. Resolution depends on whether specific words or phrases are spoken during the broadcast commentary.
Resolution is determined by monitoring the national broadcast (or home team local broadcast if not nationally televised) for specific words or phrases spoken by play-by-play or color commentators. Commentary counting begins following the first pitch and continues through game conclusion, including extra innings if applicable. Commentary ends following the umpire's decision on any final play review. Promotional content aired during the event counts toward resolution, but advertisements do not. Previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings from separate times, places, or events are excluded. For each target phrase, the exact word or its plural or possessive forms must be used; other grammatical or tense inflections do not qualify. Resolution is determined primarily through video evidence; if consensus cannot be reached via video, official transcripts (internal and external) are consulted. If the game is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days with announcement by the end of the following calendar day, markets remain open. If the event is cancelled or fails to qualify under these criteria, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes and all other markets resolve to No.
Prediction market odds reflect real-money commitments from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst commentary because they incorporate live, dynamic information and direct financial incentives. While sports analysts may offer qualitative opinions on likely broadcast moments, this market prices those same outcomes through continuous trading. The difference lies in methodology: markets aggregate distributed knowledge through price discovery, whereas analysts rely on expertise and historical patterns. Both approaches have merit, but markets tend to update faster when new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different announcer mentions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices reflect the collective willingness of participants to bet on specific outcomes, with higher prices indicating stronger perceived likelihood. As game time nears and new information becomes available—team roster changes, weather, injury reports—traders adjust their positions, moving prices in real time. This continuous repricing ensures odds stay aligned with current expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, shortly after the Cubs vs Brewers game concludes. The outcome is determined by verifying announcer statements against credible public sources, including official broadcast recordings and reputable sports media coverage. Once the event is complete and statements can be confirmed, this market settles based on whether the specified commentary was actually aired during the game.
Several factors can shift odds before the game begins: roster announcements, injury updates, weather conditions affecting play style, and historical patterns of specific announcers. Breaking news about player performance or team dynamics may prompt traders to reassess the likelihood of certain commentary themes. Additionally, if either team makes a surprising lineup change or if a notable player is unexpectedly unavailable, traders may reprice mentions tied to those individuals. Real-time game developments—early leads, dramatic plays, or momentum shifts—will also influence final trading activity as kickoff approaches.