TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 12, 12:15 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks specific words and phrases that announcers may use during the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway fight scheduled for July 11, 2026. Resolution depends on whether play-by-play or color commentators use exact terms or their grammatical variants during active commentary from the start of round one until the referee's final decision.
Commentary is monitored for thirteen specific terms or phrases: Blood/Bloody/Bloodied, Choke/Choked/Chokehold, Knockout/Knock Out/Knocked Out, Train/Trained/Training, Triangle, Championship, Dana, Decision/Judge, Legal/Illegal, Lights Out, Slip/Slips/Slipped, Tired/Tiring, and What a Fight. Resolution requires the exact phrase or word, including plural or possessive forms, though grammatical/tense inflections are not required. Commentary counting begins once the first round commences and ends when the referee decides the fight; if a no contest is called or the referee stops the fight early, commentary continues until the ring announcer officially declares the winner. Promotional content aired during the event counts toward resolution, but advertisements do not. Previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings from separate times, places, or events are excluded. Video of the fight originally scheduled for July 11, 2026 serves as the primary resolution source; if Kalshi employees cannot reach consensus using video, internal and external official transcripts are used. If the event is cancelled or fails to qualify, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes and all other markets resolve to No. If postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days with announcement by the end of the following calendar day, markets remain open.
Prediction market odds reflect real-time aggregation of trader beliefs and are often more dynamic than static analyst forecasts. While traditional sports analysts may publish pre-fight commentary predictions based on historical patterns and fighter profiles, this market prices those same outcomes continuously as new information surfaces. Traders with insider knowledge or stronger conviction can move odds faster than published analysis updates. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is more or less bullish on certain announcer mentions than expert consensus, offering a useful cross-check for your own predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to each possible announcer mention outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the marginal trade—the last matched buy or sell—and moves in real time as new orders arrive. Shares are fractional and priced between 0 and 100 cents, with the sum of all outcome prices typically totaling 100 cents. This structure incentivizes accurate prediction and allows you to enter or exit positions at transparent, market-determined rates.
This market resolves around Jul 26, 2026, once the McGregor vs Holloway fight has concluded and broadcast commentary is available for review. The outcome is determined by verifying the actual announcer statements against credible public sources, including official broadcast recordings and reputable sports media coverage. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout once the resolution is confirmed and the market settles.
Several catalysts can shift odds before the fight airs. Official fighter weigh-ins, pre-fight interviews, and injury announcements may prompt announcers to emphasize certain narratives, moving related outcome prices. Changes to the broadcast booth lineup or network coverage details could also matter if specific announcers are known for particular catchphrases or commentary styles. As the fight date approaches and media coverage intensifies, emerging storylines—rivalries, comeback narratives, or fighter statements—can influence what commentators are likely to highlight, causing traders to reprrice their positions accordingly.