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Science and Technology
What will Tesla say during the Cybercab Launch?
kalshi

What will Tesla say during the Cybercab Launch?

Volume:
$64,873

Event does not qualify

 - Kalshi

Event does not qualify - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 11:27 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
100%
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,835
N/A
N/A
$8,890
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Per-mile

View
0%
80%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,176
N/A
N/A
$6,750
Settled
No
kalshi

30,000 / 30k / $30,000

View
0%
69%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,272
N/A
N/A
$5,358
Settled
No
kalshi

Butterfly door

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,339
N/A
N/A
$3,625
Settled
No
kalshi

Las Vegas / Nevada

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,096
N/A
N/A
$3,805
Settled
No
kalshi

Unsupervised

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,540
N/A
N/A
$2,780
Settled
No
kalshi

Full Self-Driving / FSD

View
0%
85%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,887
N/A
N/A
$2,110
Settled
No
kalshi

Optimus

View
0%
86%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,804
N/A
N/A
$1,860
Settled
No
kalshi

Safety monitor / Safety driver

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,673
N/A
N/A
$2,293
Settled
No
kalshi

Subscriber / Subscription

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,119
N/A
N/A
$2,098
Settled
No
kalshi

Gigafactory

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,044
N/A
N/A
$1,036
Settled
No
kalshi

AI4

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,460
N/A
N/A
$1,365
Settled
No
kalshi

Waymo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,150
N/A
N/A
$1,104
Settled
No
kalshi

Exponential

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,098
N/A
N/A
$985
Settled
No
kalshi

Geofence

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$177
N/A
N/A
$173
Settled
No
kalshi

Flood / Flooding

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$60
Settled
No
kalshi

Uber

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

During Tesla's Cybercab Launch Event scheduled for September 3, 2026, various markets will resolve based on whether specific phrases are mentioned by any Tesla representative in an official capacity. The resolution depends on live broadcasts or official transcripts, with certain conditions applying to event cancellations or delays.

Kalshi

The event-level rules govern the resolution of multiple markets based on specific phrases mentioned by Tesla representatives during the Cybercab Launch Event. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or term, and resolution occurs if the exact phrase (or its plural/possessive form) is uttered in an official capacity during the live event. Verification is conducted using live broadcasts or, if necessary, official transcripts. Markets do not resolve based on grammatical variations, unaired content, or off-mic statements. If the event is canceled or fails to meet qualification criteria, the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to Yes, and all others to No. Postponements announced within 14 days keep markets open. Consensus among Kalshi employees ensures fair adjudication when video evidence is ambiguous.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Cybercab launch announcements tracks the current odds of various statements being made by Tesla during the event. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $49,853, and the total volume traded to date, which is $64,873. This provides a clear picture of where traders are placing their bets regarding the specifics of the Cybercab launch.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions made in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts are speculating on potential announcements surrounding the Cybercab, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real money. This often leads to a different perspective than polls or expert opinions, as traders are incentivized to be accurate. The market’s collective wisdom may offer a unique signal, potentially identifying announcements that are more or less likely than initially anticipated by conventional analysis.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each statement being made during the Cybercab launch. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of that outcome’s likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time estimate of expectations. The higher the demand for a particular outcome, the higher its price will climb, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a review of official statements made by Tesla during the Cybercab launch event. Specifically, the market will determine which statements, if any, were actually delivered as predicted by traders. The exact wording of the statements will be carefully considered to ensure accurate resolution of this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any official teasers or pre-launch announcements from Tesla regarding the Cybercab’s features or pricing would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected news about Tesla’s production capacity or supply chain could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any leaks or credible rumors about the launch event’s content could lead to substantial price movements. Finally, broader market trends affecting the electric vehicle sector or Tesla’s stock price could indirectly affect trading activity in this market.