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$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

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2,388,728,490

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$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call?
kalshi
polymarket

What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call?

Volume:
$155,840

Nvidia

 - Kalshi

Nvidia - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 6:07 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Nvidia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,122
N/A
N/A
$10,034
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Satellite

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,574
N/A
N/A
$8,723
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Starbase

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,924
N/A
N/A
$7,301
Settled
Yes
kalshi

China / Chinese

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,386
N/A
N/A
$8,347
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cursor

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,190
N/A
N/A
$5,261
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cursor

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Order of Magnitude

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,120
N/A
N/A
$6,204
Settled
Yes
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,508
N/A
N/A
$4,602
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tesla

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,944
N/A
N/A
$3,975
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tesla

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$1,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Grok

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,245
N/A
N/A
$5,001
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Grok

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.3¢
N/A
$322
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Anthropic / OpenAI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,796
N/A
N/A
$3,916
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Elon / Musk 3+ times

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.4¢
N/A
$2,400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Data Center

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,541
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Data Center 5+ times

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$991
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Moon 3+ times

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.6¢
N/A
$826
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Launch 10+ times

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$388
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Starship

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.3¢
N/A
$308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

IPO

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Mars

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,600
N/A
N/A
$13,639
Settled
No
polymarket

Mars

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Colossus

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,010
N/A
N/A
$6,115
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,363
N/A
N/A
$6,363
Settled
No
polymarket

-No Qualifying Event-

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

This event group tracks whether SpaceX will mention specific phrases during their next earnings call scheduled for August 4, 2026. Markets resolve based on audio evidence from the call or cancellation of the event.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Speaker scope divergence: Polymarket resolves if anyone says the phrase, while Kalshi requires Elon Musk to say it.Hero tip: Focus trades on Polymarket for broader mention risk; Kalshi trades require Musk-specific utterance. Monitor pre-call leaks about speaker schedules.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the earnings call; '-No Qualifying Event-' resolves Yes if the call does not air by August 5, 2026. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes only if Elon Musk personally says the phrase during the call. Key quote: 'If Elon Musk says [term] as part of SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of SpaceX currently scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Kalshi

The event centers on whether Elon Musk utters any of the specified phrases during the SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th, with resolution based strictly on content from the live broadcast or official transcripts. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or term (e.g., AI, Grok, Satellite), and the market resolves to Yes if Musk says the exact phrase, or a plural/possessive form of it, during the call. The call must be open to the press and conducted as a live televised or streamed event. Inaudible private conversations, unofficial statements, or content outside the original broadcast do not count. If the event is postponed within 14 days, markets remain open. If definitively canceled or unable to meet criteria, the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to Yes, and all others to No. Resolution relies on video or official transcripts, with Kalshi employees making the final determination if consensus cannot be reached.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the SpaceX earnings call statements market aggregates betting data from multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and volume. It tracks how traders across platforms price the likelihood of specific statements being made during the upcoming SpaceX earnings call. You can see total volume of $155,840 and 24-hour volume of $136,672, plus cross-platform consensus views. This gives a live snapshot of market expectations versus analyst commentary.

Key signals that could shift this market include pre-call leaks, test results, executive interviews, or regulatory updates that shape expectations about tone and content. Any hint — even indirect — that certain phrases are likely or unlikely to surface can cause rapid re-pricing. Additionally, competing headlines or broader market volatility may temporarily sway trader sentiment before the call.