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What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?
kalshi
polymarket

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

Volume:
$1,552,366

Above 7620

 - Kalshi

Above 7620 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 10, 11:44 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 7620

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$678,619
N/A
N/A
$553,319
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 7610

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50,159
N/A
N/A
$50,159
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $7,300

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$22,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $7,150

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $7,450

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,166
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $7,050

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,558
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $7,600

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 7600

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,114
N/A
N/A
$2,114
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $6,500

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,508
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $6,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$131,619
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $6,300

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$129,935
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $7,700

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55,823
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7700

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,522
N/A
N/A
$6,973
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $8,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7630

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,178
N/A
N/A
$17,136
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $6,900

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,385
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $7,850

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,666
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $6,700

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

7,100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,781
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $6,500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,464
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7640

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,984
N/A
N/A
$8,730
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7750

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,099
N/A
N/A
$6,399
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7740

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,856
N/A
N/A
$7,569
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7730

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,712
N/A
N/A
$6,770
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7710

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,244
N/A
N/A
$6,982
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 33

Intro

This market tracks whether the S&P 500 will reach specific price levels during June 2026, with predictions aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket using Yahoo Finance as the resolution source. The leading outcome—that SPX will touch 7660 at any point by June 30, 2026—carries a consensus probability of 2.0%, while the secondary threshold of 7630 stands at 1.0%. These markets test a range of price targets spanning the 7600–7750 band, capturing trader expectations for index performance over the six-month window. Watch for market movement as June 30, 2026 approaches, the final day of the measurement period for intraday extremes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves on closing values within June 2026, while Polymarket resolves on any intraday extreme (high or low) touched during June 2026. This creates different outcome probabilities for the same underlying index.Hero tip: Kalshi markets reward conviction on sustained price levels; Polymarket markets reward conviction on volatility and intraday swings. If you expect high volatility but uncertain direction, Polymarket's intraday-extreme approach favors Yes outcomes. If you expect stable, directional movement, Kalshi's closing-price approach is more predictable.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 16 markets testing whether SPX closes above thresholds (7600–7750) during June 1–30, 2026. Resolution is binary based on closing price only. Key Quote: 'If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jun 1, 2026 and ending on Jun 30, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: 18 markets testing whether SPX touches specific highs (6300–8000) or lows (6000–7100) at any point during June 2026 using 1-minute candle data from Yahoo Finance. Resolution is Yes if any 1-minute candle shows a high/low equal to or beyond the target. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for June 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final High price equal to or above the listed price.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June 2026?

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the closing value of the S&P 500 index during the period from June 1 through June 30, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the index closes above that threshold. The settlement value is the official S&P 500 closing price on the final trading day of June 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, often diverging from sell-side analyst price targets because markets incorporate forward-looking uncertainty and tail risks that traditional models may underweight. While equity strategists publish year-end S&P 500 forecasts, prediction markets isolate specific price levels and near-term catalysts, creating a more granular and dynamic benchmark. Market odds tend to update faster than quarterly analyst revisions, capturing Fed policy shifts, earnings surprises, and macro data in real time.

Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data, and employment reports will be primary drivers of S&P 500 direction through June 2026. Corporate earnings revisions, geopolitical tensions, and credit market stress could trigger sharp repricing of equity valuations. Technical breaks above or below key resistance levels may accelerate momentum trades. Sector rotation between growth and value, changes in interest rate expectations, and unexpected macro shocks all carry potential to shift market odds significantly. Real-time monitoring of economic calendars and Fed communications is essential for tracking probability shifts.