TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of July 6 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of July 6 2026?

Volume:
$128,273

above $58.25

 - Kalshi

above $58.25 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $58.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,292
N/A
N/A
$5,892
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $58

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,087
N/A
N/A
$5,338
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $57.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,329
N/A
N/A
$3,428
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $57.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,780
N/A
N/A
$4,801
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $57

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,589
N/A
N/A
$3,280
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $56.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,209
N/A
N/A
$2,653
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $57.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,451
N/A
N/A
$1,168
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $56.25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,402
N/A
N/A
$1,344
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $58

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,391
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $61

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,303
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $60

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $56

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,022
N/A
N/A
$685
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $59

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$881
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $56.75

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$871
N/A
N/A
$775
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $62

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$498
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $63

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $58.50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,926
N/A
N/A
$5,010
Settled
No
kalshi

above $59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,949
N/A
N/A
$7,368
Settled
No
kalshi

above $59.25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,287
N/A
N/A
$4,872
Settled
No
kalshi

above $58.75

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,472
N/A
N/A
$2,676
Settled
No
kalshi

above $63.25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,324
N/A
N/A
$4,252
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $57

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $64

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

above $60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,471
N/A
N/A
$1,618
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $65

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,900
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 54

Description

This event group tracks whether Silver (XAGUSD) will reach specific price levels during the week of July 6, 2026. Polymarket offers binary YES/NO contracts on whether silver hits various HIGH prices ($63–$69) and LOW prices ($56–$62) at any point during that week, while Kalshi offers contracts based on the closing price of silver at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on July 8, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket resolves on whether any 1-minute candle HIGH or LOW is touched during the entire week of July 6–12, 2026, while Kalshi resolves on the closing price at a single point in time (July 8, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT). This creates a fundamental scope and timing mismatch.Hero tip: Polymarket contracts reward volatility and intraweek price movement; Kalshi contracts reward directional accuracy at a specific moment. If you expect a spike that doesn't hold, Polymarket HIGH contracts will still resolve YES. If you expect a sustained level, Kalshi is more aligned. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if intraweek volatility diverges from the July 8 close.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Range/Touch Resolution: Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle HIGH (for $63–$69 contracts) or LOW (for $56–$62 contracts) equals or exceeds the target price at any point during the trading week of July 6–12, 2026 (Sunday 6 PM ET through Friday 5 PM ET). Source: Pyth 1-minute candles, with CME COMEX SI futures as fallback if Pyth data is unavailable.
  • Kalshi: Point-in-Time Closing Price: Resolves YES if the 1-minute candle closing price on July 8, 2026 at exactly 5:00 PM EDT is above the specified threshold (range $56–$65.75 in $0.25 increments). Single snapshot, single date/time, no intraweek volatility considered.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of July 6 2026?

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by comparing the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver on July 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $56.00 to $65.75 USD per troy ounce, each in $0.25 increments. Each threshold represents a separate binary outcome: if the settlement price exceeds the specified threshold, that outcome resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The close price is defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM). All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the exact settlement time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds distill real-money conviction into live probabilities, whereas analyst forecasts rely on models and sentiment surveys. Markets reward accuracy immediately through profit and loss, creating incentives for informed participants to correct mispriced outcomes. This market's odds reflect traders betting capital on silver's trajectory, often incorporating data faster than traditional analyst consensus updates. Comparing the two reveals whether institutional or retail positioning is ahead of published research.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different contract specifications and trader bases, creating natural price divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's liquidity, fee structure, and user demographics shape how quickly new information is priced in. Polymarket may emphasize a higher threshold, while Kalshi focuses on a lower close price target, meaning the same underlying silver move can resolve differently across venues. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, though transaction costs and platform friction often preserve modest spreads.

Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data, and US dollar strength are primary catalysts for silver volatility heading into July 2026. Geopolitical tensions, mining supply disruptions, and industrial demand shifts also influence precious metals pricing. Central bank purchases or sales, real interest rate expectations, and equity market selloffs can trigger sharp repricing. Traders monitor economic calendars and commodity-linked news closely, as any surprise can shift this market's odds significantly in the final weeks before settlement.