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Iran / Iranian
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Iran / Iranian - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 17, 2026
Closed: Sep 16, 11:10 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks specific phrases that Roy Cooper might use during a televised interview, resolving based on whether he utters any of the predefined terms. Each phrase represents a distinct market outcome tied to his potential commentary during the discussion.
Multiple markets exist, each tied to a specific phrase or term that Roy Cooper may say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell on September 16, 2026. For any market, if Cooper uses the exact phrase or its plural/possessive form while speaking in an official capacity during the live broadcast, that market resolves to Yes. If the event is canceled or fails to meet the payout criteria, the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Postponements announced within one calendar day for rescheduling within 14 days keep markets open. Resolution relies primarily on live video, with transcripts used if video consensus cannot be reached. Ineligible content—such as off-mic remarks, archival footage, or unaired material—does not count toward payout qualifications.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect what traders believe is most likely to occur during the interview, which may differ from initial analyst forecasts or polling data. This market allows for a dynamic assessment of expectations, as probabilities shift based on new information and collective insight. While polls and expert opinions offer valuable perspectives, they represent static viewpoints, whereas this market continuously incorporates evolving sentiment. The difference between what analysts predict and what traders price in can be significant, offering a unique view of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and opinions. Essentially, the market determines the odds based on supply and demand for each contract, providing a real-time probability estimate for what Governor Cooper will say.
This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a review of the official transcript or a reliable recording of Governor Roy Cooper's statements during his appearance on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell. The market will determine which outcome, based on the statements made, aligns with the contracts traded on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding Governor Cooper’s policy positions, recent public statements, or anticipated talking points could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected developments related to the topics likely to be discussed on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell—such as legislative updates or current events—could also cause significant price movements. Furthermore, broader political news or shifts in public opinion could impact how traders assess the likelihood of different statements being made during the interview.