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$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

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62%

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What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
predict
polymarket

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

Total volume:
$357,939
Volume 24h:
$2,360
21%
Liquidity:
$291,625
3%
Open interest:
$39,207N/A

<$1T

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?

21%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 22.9¢ buys you 437 shares | Odds: 21% Total Payout: $437 | Net Profit: $337 Multiplier: 4.37x | ROI: 337% High Projected APY: 698% 258 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

<$1T

Trade
21%
Yes 22.9¢No 82¢
4.9¢
$31,103
$747
0%
38%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

<$1T

Trade
20%
1%
Yes 20.2¢No 81¢
1.2¢
$6,733
$81,117
0.13%
21%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
19.6%
Yes 21.6¢No 81.5¢
Avg: 3.1¢Max: 4.9¢
predict

$1.75T–$2.0T

Trade
20%
Yes 22¢No 82¢
4¢
$30,020
$100
0%
0%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

$1.75T–$2.0T

Trade
19%
1%
Yes 20¢No 82¢
2¢
$7,146
$56,642
0%
29%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
19%
Yes 21¢No 82¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

$1.5T–$1.75T

Trade
17%
1%
Yes 17.3¢No 83.8¢
1.1¢
$5,385
$36,202
0%
42%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$1.5T–$1.75T

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
$30,023
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
16.8%
Yes 17.3¢No 83.8¢
Avg: 3.1¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

$2.5T+

Trade
15%
1%
Yes 15.4¢No 85.5¢
0.9¢
$5,471
$70,087
2%
3%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$2.5T+

Trade
N/A
N/A
4.9¢
$29,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
15%
Yes 15.4¢No 85.5¢
Avg: 2.9¢Max: 4.9¢
polymarket

$1.25T–$1.5T

Trade
11%
2%
Yes 12.1¢No 89.7¢
1.8¢
$7,675
$39,808
2%
38%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$1.25T–$1.5T

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
$29,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
11.2%
Yes 12.1¢No 89.7¢
Avg: 2.9¢Max: 4¢
polymarket

$2.0T–$2.25T

Trade
9%
Yes 11.9¢No 94.7¢
6.6¢
$3,454
$5,168
0%
10%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$2.0T–$2.25T

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
$29,749
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8.6%
Yes 11.9¢No 94.7¢
Avg: 6.3¢Max: 6.6¢
polymarket

$2.25T–$2.5T

Trade
6%
Yes 6.7¢No 94¢
0.7¢
$6,383
$25,807
0%
25%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$2.25T–$2.5T

Trade
N/A
N/A
5.6¢
$29,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
6.4%
Yes 6.7¢No 94¢
Avg: 3.2¢Max: 5.6¢
polymarket

$1.0T–$1.25T

Trade
3%
Yes 3.9¢No 97.3¢
1.2¢
$8,941
$42,261
0%
17%
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
predict

$1.0T–$1.25T

Trade
N/A
N/A
4.1¢
$29,971
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.3%
Yes 3.9¢No 97.3¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 4.1¢
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks the expected valuation of OpenAI at the time of its initial public offering. Currently, the consensus probability that OpenAI’s IPO valuation will fall between $1.75T and $2.0T is 20.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Predict and Polymarket, and will resolve based on the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A secondary outcome, with a 20.5% probability, is that OpenAI’s IPO valuation will be less than $1T. Keep an eye on OpenAI’s financial performance and regulatory filings leading up to the resolution date estimate of January 1, 2028, to see if these probabilities shift.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution criteria based on the final prospectus filed with the SEC, including the same fallback for a delayed or cancelled IPO and tie-breaking rule.Primary resolution logic: Final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

Core resolution logic:

  • Valuation is calculated as IPO price per share * fully diluted shares outstanding.
  • The final offering price to the public, as stated in the final prospectus, is used.
  • Post-listing trading prices are not considered.
  • Preliminary price ranges are not considered.
  • If the valuation falls exactly on a boundary, the higher range resolves.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No IPO by Deadline: If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets will resolve to the lowest bracket (less than $1T).
  • Prospectus Discrepancies: In the unlikely event of conflicting information within the final prospectus, a consensus of credible reporting may be used as a secondary source.
Timing: Upon the filing of the final prospectus with the SEC for OpenAI's IPO, and the subsequent determination of the IPO valuation.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this market tracks predictions about the valuation of OpenAI when it eventually becomes a publicly traded company. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $357,939, with $2,310 traded in the last 24 hours. The Polymarket currently favors Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? at 19.6%, while Predict leans toward Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? at 20.5%. This dashboard provides a consensus view of expectations, aggregating data from these two leading prediction markets to give a comprehensive outlook on the OpenAI IPO valuation market.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by firm positions or biases, while this market represents the wisdom of the crowd, aggregating diverse opinions. While analyst estimates vary widely, the aggregated prediction from this market provides a real-time, financially incentivized forecast. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access. It’s valuable to consider both prediction market signals and analyst reports when forming a comprehensive view of the potential OpenAI IPO valuation. The current volume of $357,939 suggests significant interest in this event.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and the specific incentives offered on each platform. Polymarket may attract a different class of traders than Predict, leading to differing interpretations of available information regarding OpenAI’s financial performance and future prospects. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform—currently $357,939 overall—can influence price discovery and create temporary discrepancies. These differences reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the diverse perspectives of participants.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the initial closing price of OpenAI’s stock during its IPO. The price will be sourced from established financial news outlets and stock exchanges. Traders should monitor news related to OpenAI’s IPO filing and launch date to anticipate the resolution timeline. The total volume traded in this market is currently $357,939, indicating substantial participation and interest in predicting the IPO valuation.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding OpenAI’s financial performance, regulatory approvals for its IPO, and overall market conditions will be closely watched. Positive news about OpenAI’s growth or technological advancements could drive prices higher, while negative news or increased competition could lower them. Broader economic factors, such as interest rate changes and investor sentiment, will also play a role. Any shifts in these areas could lead to substantial changes in the trading volume, currently at $2,310, and the predicted IPO valuation.