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404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

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5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of June 29 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of June 29 2026?

Volume:
$211,056

above $3.150

 - Kalshi

above $3.150 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $3.150

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,851
N/A
N/A
$14,079
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.170

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,511
N/A
N/A
$3,266
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.145

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,313
N/A
N/A
$6,666
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.165

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,345
N/A
N/A
$1,563
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.155

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,128
N/A
N/A
$1,902
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.160

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,130
N/A
N/A
$776
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.140

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$668
N/A
N/A
$410
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $3.20

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$485
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.135

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$353
N/A
N/A
$278
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.130

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
$262
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.050

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$158
N/A
N/A
$148
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.125

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
$120
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.055

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
$70
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.115

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
$56
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.120

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.025

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.065

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.020

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.875

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.880

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.885

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.895

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.900

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.905

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.910

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 114

Description

This event group tracks whether Natural Gas (NG) futures will reach specific price thresholds during the week of June 29, 2026. Kalshi offers 90 binary markets on whether the NGDQ6 contract closes above various price points at 5:00 PM EDT on June 29, while Polymarket offers markets on whether the active-month NG contract touches specific high or low prices at any point during the trading week.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different settlement values: Kalshi resolves on a single close price at 5:00 PM EDT on June 29, while Polymarket resolves on whether any intraday high or low is touched during the entire trading week. Additionally, Kalshi specifies the NGDQ6 contract, while Polymarket uses the active-month contract, which may differ due to contract roll mechanics.Hero tip: If you believe NG will spike intraday but pull back by 5 PM, Polymarket high/low markets will resolve YES while Kalshi close-price markets may resolve NO. Conversely, if NG drifts higher and closes above a threshold but never spiked during the week, Kalshi YES does not guarantee Polymarket YES for lower thresholds. Cross-check contract roll dates (typically the third-to-last business day of the month before delivery); if the active month rolls before June 29, Polymarket's reference contract will change. Confirm Pyth data feed is operational; if it fails, Polymarket uses CME daily high/low, which lacks 1-minute granularity.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves on NGDQ6 close price at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on June 29, 2026. All 90 markets are binary YES/NO based on whether the close exceeds the specified threshold. No intraday highs/lows are considered. Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on June 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above [threshold] USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves on whether the active-month NG contract's 1-minute candle high or low touches the specified price at any point during any trading session of the week of June 29, 2026. Uses Pyth as primary source; falls back to CME official daily high/low if Pyth is unavailable. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of June 29 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures has a final High or Low price equal to or beyond the listed price.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of June 29 2026?

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract at 5:00 PM EDT on June 29, 2026. The close price represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval; for example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. Settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. The settlement contract and corresponding month represent standard exchange symbology where contracts are named after their delivery month, not their expiration date. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the settlement price exceeds that threshold. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 3 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances. Polymarket settles on a precise closing price and time (June 29, 5:00 PM EDT), rewarding precision; Kalshi uses a weekly high, which is easier to forecast but captures broader volatility. Contract design differences create natural pricing gaps: traders confident in intraday volatility may favor the high-based contract, while those focused on end-of-day levels prefer the closing-price version. Liquidity depth and fee structures also influence how quickly each platform reflects new information.

Natural gas prices are highly sensitive to weather forecasts, production disruptions, and storage levels. A heat wave or cold snap in late June could spike demand and push NG higher, favoring bullish outcomes. Conversely, supply surprises—such as unexpected production increases or LNG export delays—could suppress prices. Geopolitical tensions affecting global energy flows, Fed policy shifts, and crude oil correlation swings also influence trader positioning. Weekly inventory reports and real-time weather updates will likely trigger sharp repricing as the resolution date approaches, making this market volatile and reactive to breaking energy news.