TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of July 6 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of July 6 2026?

Volume:
$144,215

above $3.010

 - Kalshi

above $3.010 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above $3.010

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,960
N/A
N/A
$2,648
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3.005

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,612
N/A
N/A
$1,972
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,366
N/A
N/A
$3,970
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $2.90

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,996
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.990

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,122
N/A
N/A
$2,709
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.995

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,346
N/A
N/A
$2,550
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.975

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,937
N/A
N/A
$2,611
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.985

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,444
N/A
N/A
$2,187
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $3.10

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,237
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.960

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,626
N/A
N/A
$521
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $3.30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.965

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,353
N/A
N/A
$666
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.980

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,207
N/A
N/A
$1,184
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.970

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$808
N/A
N/A
$493
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $3.00

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.950

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$637
N/A
N/A
$536
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.955

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$601
N/A
N/A
$518
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.940

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$570
N/A
N/A
$383
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.945

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$469
N/A
N/A
$396
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.920

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$222
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.905

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $3.20

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.935

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$144
N/A
N/A
$144
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.910

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$131
N/A
N/A
$131
Settled
Yes
kalshi

above $2.915

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 94

Description

This event group tracks whether Natural Gas (NG) futures will reach specific price levels during the week of July 6, 2026. Polymarket offers binary markets on whether intraweek highs or lows will be touched at various price points ($2.60–$3.90), while Kalshi offers binary markets on whether the closing price at a specific moment (July 9, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT) will exceed various thresholds ($2.850–$3.145).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket measures intraweek price extrema (any high or low touch during week of July 6, 2026), while Kalshi measures a single closing price at a specific moment (July 9, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT). These are distinct settlement values with different timing and price discovery logic.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi markets will resolve identically. A price that touches intraweek may not close at that level on July 9 at 5 PM, and vice versa. Understand the contract specifications: Polymarket uses Active Month NG futures (which may roll during the week), while Kalshi explicitly uses NGDQ6 (July contract). Verify which contract is active on each platform at resolution time.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Intraweek extrema model: Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle high or low during the entire trading week of July 6–10, 2026 reaches or exceeds the specified price. Uses Pyth 1-minute candle data (primary) or CME daily high/low (fallback). Accounts for Active Month contract roll (changes at start of second trading session prior to last trading day). Source: Pyth at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD.
  • Kalshi: Point-in-time close model: Resolves YES if the 1-minute candlestick close price for NGDQ6 on July 9, 2026 at exactly 5:00 PM EDT exceeds the specified threshold. Measures only one closing price at one specific moment, not intraweek extrema. No fallback source specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of July 6 2026?

Kalshi

Settlement is determined by the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on July 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. The settlement contract is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. Contract naming follows standard exchange symbology where contracts are designated by their delivery month rather than expiration date. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 3 decimal places. The close price for a 1-minute candlestick represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval; for example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they aggregate live trader conviction rather than static research reports. Market odds reflect immediate reactions to supply disruptions, weather patterns, storage data, and geopolitical events, while analyst forecasts may lag behind intraday volatility. Traders on this market are pricing in specific price thresholds for a defined week, creating a real-time gauge of where professionals and informed speculators believe natural gas will settle. This dynamic pricing can reveal consensus blind spots or early signals that traditional forecasters have not yet incorporated.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds because they use distinct outcome definitions and trader bases. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket frames the question around a $3.80 threshold, while Kalshi uses $2.875 as its strike price, making direct comparison difficult. Liquidity, user demographics, and fee structures also vary between platforms, causing some traders to favor one venue over another. Additionally, each platform's order book depth and recent trading activity can shift prices independently, even when the underlying natural gas market moves in tandem. Monitoring both helps traders spot arbitrage opportunities or consensus shifts.

Natural gas prices are highly sensitive to weather forecasts, production outages, LNG export demand, and storage inventory reports released by the EIA. Geopolitical tensions affecting global energy supply, unexpected refinery shutdowns, or shifts in renewable energy generation can all trigger sharp moves in this market. Seasonal demand patterns and cooling-season expectations will also influence trader positioning heading into July 2026. Monitoring NOAA weather updates, OPEC announcements, and U.S. energy infrastructure news will help traders anticipate volatility and adjust their predictions accordingly.