TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 26, 10:10 AM EST
Kalshi
The event involves monitoring a news broadcast for specific phrases spoken by a designated speaker. Resolution depends on whether certain exact words or phrases appear during the live broadcast, with strict criteria for what counts as valid speech.
The event resolves based on whether Megan Romer utters any of the specified phrases during her official speaking segments on Fox News Sunday. Each market corresponds to a different phrase or set of phrases (e.g., "Trump", "Zohran / Mamdani", "Bernie", etc.). If Romer says the exact phrase, or a plural/possessive form of it, during the live broadcast—excluding advertisements, archival footage, or unauthenticated external content—the relevant market resolves to Yes. The primary evidence for resolution is the live broadcast video; if unclear, official transcripts may be used. For the market "Event does not qualify" to resolve to Yes, the event must be definitively cancelled, fail to meet the speaking-in-official-capacity requirement, or face other resolution-preventing circumstances. Postponements announced within one calendar day and rescheduled within 14 days keep markets open. All markets except "Event does not qualify" resolve to No if the event fails to qualify.
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market reflects a collective trader view that can diverge significantly from traditional opinions. Where analysts may offer nuanced commentary, the odds here translate expectations into a quantifiable probability. Traders may price in factors beyond typical polling, such as media framing or recent momentum, leading to differences that can signal emerging trends before they appear in conventional forecasts.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through continuous bidding and asking, driven by their assessment of likelihood and recent news cues. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate of these placements, updated instantly with each trade. Volume of $66,061 shows overall interest, while price fluctuations often respond to breaking commentary or poll releases in the hours before the interview.
This market resolves around Aug 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. After the Fox News Sunday broadcast, moderators will compare the transcript against the defined statement space, and the market will close based on that verified match. Timing depends on transcription availability, but the result is settled within hours of the show’s conclusion.
Key signals include pre-show interviews, poll releases, and any breaking news about Megan Romer’s preparation or likely talking points. Media speculation or commentary from political advisors can also shift trader sentiment. As the broadcast approaches, real-time reactions to early segments may cause rapid price swings, especially if unexpected themes emerge that hint at the targeted statement’s likelihood.