TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 10, 7:07 AM EST
Kalshi
During a political discussion on a news program, a public figure will speak on various topics. The focus is on whether specific key terms or phrases are used during their remarks, reflecting themes likely relevant to current events or policy debates.
The event centers on determining whether Markwayne Mullin utters any of several specified phrases during his appearance on Fox News: My View with Lara Trump. Each market corresponds to a distinct phrase or term (e.g., Iran, National Security, Fraud). If Mullin speaks the exact phrase—or its plural/possessive form—in an official capacity during the live broadcast, the respective market resolves to Yes. Resolution relies primarily on video footage; if inconclusive, official transcripts serve as secondary evidence. The event qualifies only if Mullin is speaking formally; background chatter or off-mic remarks do not count. If the program is canceled or fails to meet criteria, all markets resolve to No, with the exception of the "Event does not qualify" market, which resolves to Yes. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Promotional content counts, but advertisements and archival footage do not.
This market resolves around Aug 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. After the Fox News segment with Lara Trump airs, analysts and traders will review transcripts and broadcast recordings to determine which statement matches the winning condition. The process relies on publicly available evidence rather than internal records or private assessments.
Media previews, draft excerpts, or pre-show interviews mentioning Mullin's planned topics could shift this market significantly. Statements from political advisors, polling updates, or breaking news about the broadcast schedule also influence trader sentiment. As the air date approaches, any hint about tone, key phrases, or topics may cause rapid price adjustments on Kalshi based on expected alignment with outcome categories.