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What will Marco Rubio say during his Committee on Appropriations budget hearing?
kalshi

What will Marco Rubio say during his Committee on Appropriations budget hearing?

Volume:
$472,521

Cuba / Cuban

 - Kalshi

Cuba / Cuban - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 4, 2026

Closed: Jun 3, 7:45 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Cuba / Cuban

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$91,428
N/A
N/A
$17,800
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$81,521
N/A
N/A
$8,657
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Nuclear

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$38,309
N/A
N/A
$10,637
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,062
N/A
N/A
$5,627
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Palestine / Gaza

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,488
N/A
N/A
$7,029
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Embassy

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,538
N/A
N/A
$5,635
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Israel / Israeli

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,149
N/A
N/A
$5,872
Settled
Yes
kalshi

China / Chinese

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,379
N/A
N/A
$7,728
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Biden

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,104
N/A
N/A
$7,871
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hormuz

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,042
N/A
N/A
$4,764
Settled
Yes
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,874
N/A
N/A
$4,646
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ceasefire

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,751
N/A
N/A
$4,903
Settled
Yes
kalshi

NATO

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,021
N/A
N/A
$3,924
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ukraine

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,956
N/A
N/A
$3,556
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$49,657
N/A
N/A
$24,340
Settled
No
kalshi

Democrat

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,108
N/A
N/A
$36,681
Settled
No
kalshi

Trump (5+ times)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,948
N/A
N/A
$16,296
Settled
No
kalshi

Tariff

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,006
N/A
N/A
$9,905
Settled
No
kalshi

Board of Peace

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,630
N/A
N/A
$5,747
Settled
No
kalshi

Fraud

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,206
N/A
N/A
$6,091
Settled
No
kalshi

2028 / Campaign

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,111
N/A
N/A
$3,393
Settled
No
kalshi

Climate

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,234
N/A
N/A
$2,081
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether Marco Rubio, in his role as Secretary of State, will mention any of a broad range of geopolitical, economic, or political topics during a Senate Committee on Appropriations hearing focused on the Department of State budget. The leading outcome currently stands at 99.0%. Resolution is based on whether a qualifying event occurs, as determined by the specified resolution source. Watch for the scheduled Senate Committee on Appropriations budget hearing by June 3, 2026, which will serve as the triggering event for market resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi represent real-money bets from traders and differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on expert opinion and historical patterns. Markets aggregate dispersed information and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes, often capturing nuanced expectations about Rubio's statements that analysts may miss. While analysts might focus on broad policy themes, prediction markets can price specific phrases or topics with granular precision. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more or less confident than experts about particular statements Rubio will make during the appropriations hearing.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, each potential statement or topic Marco Rubio may mention during his Committee on Appropriations budget hearing is priced as a separate binary or categorical contract. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the implied probability of that outcome occurring. The market price adjusts in real time based on order flow and new information. Kalshi's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery, and all outcomes are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, allowing traders to express precise views on which statements Rubio will prioritize.

The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, following Marco Rubio's Committee on Appropriations budget hearing. Resolution is determined by verified records of what Rubio actually says during the hearing, including official transcripts, video footage, and credible news reports. Each outcome is evaluated against the specific language or topic it claims Rubio will mention. Once the hearing concludes and evidence is reviewed, the market settles based on which statements or remarks he made, and traders' positions are finalized accordingly.

Several catalysts could shift odds before the hearing. Rubio's recent public statements, legislative priorities, and budget proposals may signal which topics he will emphasize. Announcements about the hearing agenda or other senators' planned remarks could influence expectations. Breaking news on fiscal policy, defense spending, or agency funding could prompt Rubio to address specific issues. Media coverage and political developments in the weeks leading up to the hearing may alter trader sentiment about his likely focus areas. Statements from his office or committee leadership could also provide clues about his intended remarks.