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What will Mamdani’s NYC favorability be in Siena’s next poll?
kalshi

What will Mamdani’s NYC favorability be in Siena’s next poll?

Volume:
$954

At least 56%

 - Kalshi

At least 56% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 4:37 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 56%

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
6mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

At least 62%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$617
N/A
N/A
$417
6mo 3d
No
kalshi

At least 64%

View
0%
52%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
$200
6mo 3d
No
kalshi

At least 72%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
6mo 3d
No
kalshi

At least 66%

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
6mo 3d
No
kalshi

At least 58%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

At least 60%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

At least 68%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6mo 3d
No
kalshi

At least 70%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6mo 3d
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks public perception of Zohran Mamdani in New York City based on an upcoming university poll. It focuses on how favorable opinions shift over time, reflecting potential changes in local sentiment toward the figure. The outcome depends entirely on the first poll results released after a specific date.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the percentage of New York City respondents expressing a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in the first Siena University poll released after August 13, 2026. Multiple outcome thresholds exist, each corresponding to progressively higher favorability percentages. The market resolves to "Yes" for the specific threshold that is met or exceeded in the poll; if none of the listed thresholds are reached, all markets resolve to "No." The outcome is determined solely by the first qualifying poll after the specified date, with no adjustments for subsequent data or revisions.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Mamdani NYC favorability market dashboard shows the current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $911. It tracks how traders on Kalshi price the likelihood of different favorability outcomes for Mamdani in New York City according to Siena’s next poll. The dashboard updates in real time to reflect market activity and can help you see how expectations shift before the market settles.

This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on Siena’s next poll release, specifically the measured favorability percentage for Mamdani in the NYC sample. Until then, traders will adjust positions as new polls, statements, or events emerge that could influence public perception in the region.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Key catalysts include released polling data that shows unexpected swings in favorability, major news coverage involving Mamdani, public events or controversies in New York City, and economic or policy announcements that affect voter sentiment. Traders will also watch for any shifts in campaign strategies or endorsements that highlight NYC specifically, as these can all influence the final poll numbers that determine the outcome.