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What will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?
kalshi

What will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?

Sep 16, 2026, 6:00 PM EST - Nov 12, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$67,218
Volume 24h:
$12,494N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$51,155
2%

Good Day

 - Kalshi

Good Day - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 12, 2026

Time left: 28d:09h:18m

Will Kevin Warsh say Good Day at his Oct 2026 press conference?

92%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 91¢ buys you 110 shares | Odds: 92% Total Payout: $110 | Net Profit: $10 Multiplier: 1.10x | ROI: 10% | APY: 242% 28 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Good Day

Trade
92%
Yes 91¢No 15¢
6¢
N/A
$2,861
0%
4%
$1,594
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Central Bank

Trade
91%
Yes 91¢No 12¢
3¢
N/A
$4,610
0%
2%
$3,527
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Restrictive

Trade
84%
Yes 84¢No 22¢
6¢
N/A
$6,897
0%
0%
$4,828
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Productivity

Trade
82%
Yes 82¢No 24¢
6¢
N/A
$6,350
0.16%
0.35%
$3,837
4w 9h
active
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

Trade
80%
5%
Yes 85¢No 22¢
7¢
N/A
$5,778
0.37%
0.48%
$4,477
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Shock

Trade
74%
Yes 80¢No 27¢
7¢
N/A
$3,750
0%
1%
$3,047
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Inflation Expectation

Trade
72%
Yes 71¢No 34¢
5¢
N/A
$333
0.91%
5%
$182
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Independent / Independence

Trade
72%
Yes 71¢No 35¢
6¢
N/A
$88
2%
N/A
$36
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Anchor / Anchored

Trade
70%
Yes 70¢No 36¢
6¢
N/A
$811
0.12%
6%
$761
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Uncertainty

Trade
70%
Yes 70¢No 31¢
1¢
N/A
$3,604
2%
5%
$2,739
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Balance Sheet

Trade
64%
Yes 64¢No 43¢
7¢
N/A
$568
0%
4%
$566
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Geopolitical

Trade
63%
Yes 63¢No 44¢
7¢
N/A
$610
5%
13%
$610
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Credit

Trade
60%
Yes 59¢No 47¢
6¢
N/A
$11,479
0%
1%
$7,992
4w 9h
active
kalshi

President

Trade
58%
Yes 58¢No 47¢
5¢
N/A
$527
0.51%
118%
$438
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Oil

Trade
52%
7%
Yes 59¢No 48¢
7¢
N/A
$377
4%
45%
$282
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Commodity

Trade
47%
Yes 47¢No 60¢
7¢
N/A
$445
0%
16%
$376
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Projection

Trade
44%
Yes 43¢No 63¢
6¢
N/A
$1,429
0%
6%
$961
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Dollar

Trade
40%
Yes 46¢No 61¢
7¢
N/A
$811
5%
134%
$529
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Family Fight / Family Feud

Trade
35%
Yes 36¢No 66¢
2¢
N/A
$113
0%
8%
$100
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Unchanged

Trade
28%
7%
Yes 34¢No 72¢
6¢
N/A
$1,437
0.28%
18%
$1,095
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Pandemic

Trade
26%
Yes 29¢No 74¢
3¢
N/A
$189
0.7%
7%
$162
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas

Trade
21%
Yes 24¢No 80¢
4¢
N/A
$1,092
1%
31%
$916
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Softening

Trade
20%
Yes 26¢No 81¢
7¢
N/A
$652
3%
506%
$470
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Risk Management

Trade
20%
Yes 16¢No 88¢
4¢
N/A
$224
0%
12%
$224
4w 9h
active
kalshi

Probability

Trade
16%
Yes 16¢No 88¢
4¢
N/A
$293
0%
24%
$293
4w 9h
active
Total markets: 25 of 47

Description

This event tracks whether the Federal Reserve Chair uses specific phrases during their October 2026 post-FOMC meeting remarks. Outcomes depend on exact word matches from prepared or unscripted portions of the speech, including both introductory comments and responses to questions from journalists.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether the Chair of the Federal Reserve utters any of 47 specified phrases during their October 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A session. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the event, with internal and external transcripts serving as secondary verification if video consensus cannot be achieved among Kalshi employees. Payouts require exact phrase matches, including plural or possessive forms, while grammatical or tense variations do not qualify. The broad scope encompasses economic concepts, geopolitical references, financial terms, and various policy-related keywords that might be addressed during the press conference.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Kevin Warsh press conference market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, volume is $1,055 and total volume to date is $67,218. The interface displays how traders are pricing the likelihood of different statements being made by Kevin Warsh during his upcoming press conference. You can observe shifts in sentiment and potential key topics as traders react to new information and refine their predictions. This provides a real-time view of expectations surrounding the event.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. In this market, the implied probabilities from Kalshi may align with or diverge from what financial analysts are predicting regarding the content of Kevin Warsh’s remarks. Often, markets can incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than a single analyst report, potentially offering a more nuanced view. It’s important to note that analysts may focus on specific economic indicators, while this market reflects expectations about the totality of his statements.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information, their own analysis, and their expectations of how others will behave. This dynamic process creates a real-time probability forecast for what Kevin Warsh will say during his press conference, driven entirely by participant activity.

This market resolves around Nov 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a review of the official transcript or reliable recordings of Kevin Warsh’s press conference. The specific statements made will be assessed against the market’s defined outcomes to determine which contracts settle positively. This process ensures an objective and transparent determination of the results, reflecting what was actually stated during the event.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any pre-released remarks, prepared statements, or hints about the press conference’s focus would likely cause price adjustments. Unexpected economic data releases leading up to the event could also influence trader sentiment and shift probabilities. Furthermore, any news regarding Kevin Warsh’s policy views or recent communications could impact expectations. Major geopolitical events or shifts in financial market conditions could also play a role in how this market behaves.