TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
What will Kevin Warsh say during his ECB discussion?
kalshi

What will Kevin Warsh say during his ECB discussion?

Volume:
$35,228

Supreme Court

 - Kalshi

Supreme Court - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 11:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Supreme Court

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,922
N/A
N/A
$2,867
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Data

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,881
N/A
N/A
$1,879
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Productivity

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,256
N/A
N/A
$1,227
Settled
Yes
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$980
N/A
N/A
$943
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,283
N/A
N/A
$5,205
Settled
No
kalshi

Trump

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,362
N/A
N/A
$3,979
Settled
No
kalshi

Rate Cut / Cut Rates

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,166
N/A
N/A
$3,011
Settled
No
kalshi

Deflation / Deflationary

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,220
N/A
N/A
$3,085
Settled
No
kalshi

Oil

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,009
N/A
N/A
$2,658
Settled
No
kalshi

Tariff

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,997
N/A
N/A
$1,658
Settled
No
kalshi

Iran

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,947
N/A
N/A
$1,945
Settled
No
kalshi

Stablecoin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,739
N/A
N/A
$1,626
Settled
No
kalshi

Middle East

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$500
N/A
N/A
$500
Settled
No
kalshi

Recession

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
$386
Settled
No
kalshi

Powell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$316
N/A
N/A
$269
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$249
N/A
N/A
$239
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Description

Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, will participate in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank's 2026 Forum on Central Banking. The markets track whether he mentions specific terms or topics during his official remarks at this live, press-open event.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on Kevin Warsh's official remarks during the live broadcast or stream of the ECB Forum policy panel discussion. The event must be open to the press and televised or streamed to qualify; if the event is cancelled or fails to meet qualification criteria, all markets resolve to No. Kevin Warsh must speak in an official capacity—inaudible private conversations or unofficial statements do not count. If postponed, markets remain open if rescheduling is announced within one calendar day for a date within 14 calendar days. For each tracked term (Trump, AI/Artificial Intelligence, Tariff, Recession, Deflation/Deflationary, Oil, Iran, Middle East, Crypto/Cryptocurrency/Bitcoin, Stablecoin, Rate Cut/Cut Rates, Productivity, Supreme Court, Powell, and Data), resolution requires the exact phrase or word, including plural or possessive forms; grammatical and tense inflections are not considered variations. Video of the discussion is the primary resolution source; official transcripts (internal or external) are used if video consensus cannot be reached. Previously aired content, archival footage, or recordings from separate events do not count.

Frequently asked questions

The Kevin Warsh ECB discussion market dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for what statements or topics the former Federal Reserve governor will address during his policy panel at the European Central Bank's 2026 forum. The display shows current market sentiment, 24-hour trading volume via $31,917, and cumulative activity. Traders use this data to monitor shifting expectations about Warsh's remarks on monetary policy, financial regulation, or economic conditions as the event approaches.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders who research and price outcomes dynamically, whereas analyst forecasts typically rely on published reports and expert opinion. This market aggregates dispersed trader knowledge into a single probability estimate, often capturing nuances that traditional surveys miss. Comparing the two reveals whether professional analysts and market participants align on what Warsh is likely to emphasize—divergence can signal either underappreciated risks or overconfidence in one camp.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes Warsh may discuss. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share trades between 0 and 100 cents, reflecting the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, bids and asks adjust in real time, allowing participants to enter or exit positions at transparent, market-determined prices throughout the trading window.

This market resolves around Jul 16, 2026, following the ECB policy panel discussion featuring Kevin Warsh. The outcome is determined by verifying his actual remarks against credible public sources, including official event transcripts, video recordings, and reputable financial news coverage. Once the event concludes and statements are documented, the market settles based on which topics or statements Warsh made during the discussion.

Market odds may shift in response to Warsh's recent public comments, Federal Reserve policy announcements, or broader economic developments that hint at his likely discussion points. Pre-event media appearances, interviews, or op-eds from Warsh himself could reshape trader expectations. Additionally, major financial news—interest rate surprises, banking sector developments, or geopolitical events—may influence what traders believe he will prioritize. As the forum date approaches, leaked agendas or speaker previews could also trigger significant repricing.