What will Keir Starmer say during Prime Minister's Questions?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, each potential statement or topic outcome is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability traders assign to Starmer mentioning it during Prime Minister's Questions. Prices range from near-zero to near-100, with higher prices indicating stronger market belief in that outcome. Traders buy contracts at the ask price if bullish or sell at the bid price if bearish. The spread between bid and ask tightens as volume and interest grow, and prices adjust dynamically as new information or political events shift trader conviction about which topics will dominate the session.

The market resolves on Jun 18, 2026. Resolution is determined by whether Keir Starmer makes the specified statement or mentions the defined topic during the Prime Minister's Questions session. The exact criteria for each outcome are set at market creation and verified against the official record of the session, typically through parliamentary transcripts or video evidence. Once the session concludes and the outcome is confirmed, all contracts settle according to whether their condition was met.

Market prices may shift based on breaking political news, government announcements, or emerging policy crises that raise the salience of particular topics before Prime Minister's Questions. Opposition party statements, media coverage, or public pressure campaigns can signal which issues Starmer is likely to address. Economic data releases, international developments, or scandals affecting the government or opposition may also influence trader expectations. Additionally, Starmer's recent public statements, parliamentary business schedules, and historical patterns of his PMQ priorities can all move odds as traders reassess the probability of specific mentions.