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What will John Ternus say during his Apple Keynote?
kalshi

What will John Ternus say during his Apple Keynote?

Volume:
$133,668

Fold / Folding / Foldable

 - Kalshi

Fold / Folding / Foldable - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 9, 2:45 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fold / Folding / Foldable

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,239
N/A
N/A
$8,995
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Privacy

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,280
N/A
N/A
$5,309
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ultra

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,965
N/A
N/A
$4,030
Settled
Yes
kalshi

AirPods Pro

View
100%
82%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,363
N/A
N/A
$4,341
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Siri

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,052
N/A
N/A
$3,691
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Aluminum

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,477
N/A
N/A
$2,154
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Battery

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,398
N/A
N/A
$2,365
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Apple Intelligence

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,285
N/A
N/A
$2,818
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Health / Fitness

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,652
N/A
N/A
$1,975
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ecosystem

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,014
N/A
N/A
$1,578
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Heart Rate

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,434
N/A
N/A
$1,375
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chip

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,425
N/A
N/A
$14,972
Settled
No
kalshi

Hardware

View
0%
56%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,710
N/A
N/A
$8,921
Settled
No
kalshi

iOS 27

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,789
N/A
N/A
$9,635
Settled
No
kalshi

Afford / Affordable

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,885
N/A
N/A
$8,347
Settled
No
kalshi

Tariff

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,114
N/A
N/A
$5,416
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,268
N/A
N/A
$3,253
Settled
No
kalshi

Dynamic Island

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,843
N/A
N/A
$2,450
Settled
No
kalshi

AirTag

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,473
N/A
N/A
$3,114
Settled
No
kalshi

Apple TV

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,915
N/A
N/A
$2,568
Settled
No
kalshi

Apple Watch SE

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,342
N/A
N/A
$2,067
Settled
No
kalshi

Satellite

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,792
N/A
N/A
$1,455
Settled
No
kalshi

Google / Gemini

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$852
N/A
N/A
$841
Settled
No
kalshi

OpenAI / ChatGPT

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$466
N/A
N/A
$451
Settled
No
kalshi

Anthropic / Claude

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$342
N/A
N/A
$318
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

During a keynote address, specific phrases spoken by a key speaker will determine market outcomes. The resolution depends on whether certain exact terms are uttered during the live presentation, verified through broadcast video or official transcripts.

Kalshi

Multiple markets resolve based on whether John Ternus utters specified exact phrases during his Apple Surprise and Shine address. Each market has a unique trigger phrase, such as technical terms, product names, or concepts. Resolution relies on reviewing the live broadcast video or, if needed, official transcripts to confirm if the speaker used the precise wording. Markets exclude inaudible off-mic comments, archival footage, or pre-recorded segments unrelated to the live event. If the entire event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market wins, and all others lose. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. All determinations require consensus among Kalshi employees using available audiovisual evidence.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the John Ternus keynote quotes market on Kalshi shows real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $107,180. It tracks how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of various quotes or statements being made during the keynote, giving you a live view of market sentiment and trading activity for this specific prediction.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced assessment of expected outcomes. While analysts may provide detailed written predictions based on research, traders on Kalshi continuously adjust prices based on new information, sentiment, and betting dynamics, which can sometimes lead to notably different implied probabilities.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. After the keynote concludes, organizers will compare the spoken content against the market’s defined outcomes to determine which quote or statement aligns with the winning condition, based on publicly available transcripts or recordings.

Signals such as preview leaks, interviews with Apple executives, or early builds of keynote material could shift this market. Trader sentiment may also react to broader tech news, investor reactions to recent Apple product cycles, or any public statements hinting at thematic directions for the keynote, all influencing odds in the weeks before resolution.