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What will JD Vance say during RNC Convention?
kalshi

What will JD Vance say during RNC Convention?

Volume:
$145,274

Working Class / Middle Class

 - Kalshi

Working Class / Middle Class - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 11, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 12:30 AM EST

kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Working Class / Middle Class

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,357
N/A
N/A
$6,753
Settled
Yes
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Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime

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100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,732
N/A
N/A
$5,858
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fraud

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,569
N/A
N/A
$7,344
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Biden

View
100%
22%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,051
N/A
N/A
$3,787
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Manufacturing

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100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,776
N/A
N/A
$3,389
Settled
Yes
kalshi

2028 / Campaign

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100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,460
N/A
N/A
$3,015
Settled
Yes
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Afford / Affordable / Affordability

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100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,817
N/A
N/A
$2,482
Settled
Yes
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American Dream

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100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,435
N/A
N/A
$2,210
Settled
Yes
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Election

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100%
14%
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100¢
N/A
$2,773
N/A
N/A
$2,078
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Illegal Alien

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100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,749
N/A
N/A
$1,649
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Democrat

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100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,552
N/A
N/A
$2,346
Settled
Yes
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Radical Left

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0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,071
N/A
N/A
$24,051
Settled
No
kalshi

Made in America / American Made

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,162
N/A
N/A
$7,227
Settled
No
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Israel / Israeli

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0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,027
N/A
N/A
$6,034
Settled
No
kalshi

America First

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0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,720
N/A
N/A
$5,709
Settled
No
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

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0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,383
N/A
N/A
$5,285
Settled
No
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

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0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,403
N/A
N/A
$4,023
Settled
No
kalshi

ID / Identification

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0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,041
N/A
N/A
$3,948
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,930
N/A
N/A
$4,889
Settled
No
kalshi

Free Speech / Freedom of Speech

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,702
N/A
N/A
$3,274
Settled
No
kalshi

Socialist / Socialism

View
0%
68%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,251
N/A
N/A
$2,256
Settled
No
kalshi

China / Chinese

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,353
N/A
N/A
$1,495
Settled
No
kalshi

Tariff

View
0%
61%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,961
N/A
N/A
$1,419
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Description

The event tracks whether JD Vance will mention specific phrases during his speech at the RNC Midterm Convention. It focuses on key political and economic terms that could reflect his policy positions or rhetorical strategies during the address.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple potential phrases that JD Vance might utter during his official speech at the RNC Midterm Convention. Each market corresponds to a distinct phrase or set of phrases, including political labels, economic concepts, and policy-related terms. A market resolves to 'Yes' if Vance uses the exact specified phrase—or any plural/possessive form of it—during his speech in an official capacity. Resolution relies primarily on live broadcast video, with official transcripts serving as a backup if video consensus cannot be reached. Certain conditions, such as grammatical variations or inaudible off-mic comments, do not count toward qualification. If the convention is canceled or postponed beyond rescheduling parameters, the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to 'Yes,' nullifying others. Postponements announced within one day for rescheduling within 14 days keep all markets active.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the JD Vance RNC speech market tracks the current odds and price history of possible outcomes, alongside a 24-hour volume of $84,249. This real-time view shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing expectations for key statements or themes from the speaker during the event.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch the convention speeches and official transcripts for exact wording and context. The market settles based on whether specific phrases or themes attributed to JD Vance actually appear in his RNC address, as reported by major news outlets and the event's official record.

Media coverage of JD Vance’s preparation and any preview statements from his team will heavily influence this market. Polling data tracking public expectations for his speech could shift trader sentiment. Controversies or breaking political news in the days leading up to the convention may also cause volatility. As the event nears, any final speech drafts that leak or comments from campaign officials could produce sharp price movements on Kalshi.