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What will JD Vance say during his remarks on fraud?
kalshi

What will JD Vance say during his remarks on fraud?

Volume:
$114,602

Democrat

 - Kalshi

Democrat - Kalshi

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 1:55 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Democrat

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,802
N/A
N/A
$3,275
Settled
Yes
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Food Stamp / SNAP

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100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,587
N/A
N/A
$2,292
Settled
Yes
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China / Chinese

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,549
N/A
N/A
$2,746
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Medicare / Medicaid

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,528
N/A
N/A
$1,864
Settled
Yes
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Healthcare

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100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,116
N/A
N/A
$1,972
Settled
Yes
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Biden

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100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,811
N/A
N/A
$2,442
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Election

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100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,582
N/A
N/A
$1,524
Settled
Yes
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Taxpayer

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100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,721
N/A
N/A
$1,149
Settled
Yes
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Radical Left

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0%
8%
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100¢
N/A
$17,533
N/A
N/A
$13,944
Settled
No
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ID / Identification

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0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,234
N/A
N/A
$7,850
Settled
No
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Economy / Economic

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0%
46%
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100¢
N/A
$8,090
N/A
N/A
$5,857
Settled
No
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AI / Artificial Intelligence

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0%
23%
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100¢
N/A
$7,991
N/A
N/A
$6,180
Settled
No
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Working Class / Middle Class

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0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,616
N/A
N/A
$5,121
Settled
No
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Somali / Somalia / Somalian

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0%
78%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,846
N/A
N/A
$3,877
Settled
No
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Illegal Alien

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0%
83%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,589
N/A
N/A
$3,394
Settled
No
kalshi

2028 / Campaign

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0%
42%
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100¢
N/A
$3,335
N/A
N/A
$2,628
Settled
No
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Minnesota / Minneapolis

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0%
75%
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100¢
N/A
$2,785
N/A
N/A
$1,535
Settled
No
kalshi

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

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0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,629
N/A
N/A
$2,097
Settled
No
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Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime

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0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,379
N/A
N/A
$1,521
Settled
No
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

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0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,314
N/A
N/A
$1,645
Settled
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,080
N/A
N/A
$1,963
Settled
No
kalshi

Terrorist / Terrorism

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0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,978
N/A
N/A
$1,382
Settled
No
kalshi

America First

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0%
21%
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100¢
N/A
$1,901
N/A
N/A
$1,589
Settled
No
kalshi

California

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0%
76%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,430
N/A
N/A
$972
Settled
No
kalshi

Save America Act

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,177
N/A
N/A
$991
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

The event centers on analyzing whether JD Vance includes specific keywords during his official remarks about a fraud crackdown. Each market tracks a unique phrase or term, with resolution based on exact matches in the live speech or verified transcripts.

Kalshi

Multiple markets exist, each tied to a specific phrase or term that JD Vance may utter during his official remarks on the Trump Administration’s crackdown on fraud in Kansas City. For any market, resolution depends on whether the exact phrase — or its plural/possessive form — is spoken by Vance in an official capacity during the live broadcast. Video footage serves as the primary evidence, with official transcripts used if video consensus cannot be reached. Markets will resolve to 'Yes' only if the specified term is spoken; otherwise, they resolve to 'No'. If the event is canceled, all markets (except 'Event does not qualify') resolve to 'No', while the 'Event does not qualify' market resolves to 'Yes'. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Phrases like 'Doge/Dogecoin' allow either option, and grammatical variations do not count. Private or off-mic comments, archival footage, or unaired content do not qualify.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the JD Vance remarks market displays the current odds of various statements being made during his remarks on fraud. You can view the implied probability of each outcome, along with the total volume traded—currently $114,602—and the 24-hour volume, which is $100,163. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has moved over time as new information becomes available and traders adjust their expectations about what Senator Vance will say.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many analyst forecasts regarding the likelihood of specific statements from Senator Vance. While traditional polls and expert opinions attempt to gauge sentiment and predict future events, this market allows individuals to put their money behind their beliefs. This creates a unique signal based on incentivized forecasting. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions may reflect differing interpretations of available information or a greater degree of conviction among market participants.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes—statements Senator Vance might make—and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current prices reflect the collective judgment of all traders participating in this market, offering a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome determined by a review of Senator Vance’s publicly available remarks on the topic of fraud. The outcome will be verified against credible public reporting, such as transcripts or recordings of his statements. The market will settle to 100 for the outcome that best matches the statements made, and 0 for all other outcomes. The specifics of what constitutes a matching statement will be determined based on the most accurate and widely accepted record of his remarks.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any official statements or previews of Senator Vance’s remarks would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Major news developments related to fraud allegations, or changes in the political landscape surrounding the issue, could also influence trader behavior. Furthermore, increased media attention or prominent analysis of Senator Vance's past statements on similar topics might lead to adjustments in the market as traders reassess probabilities before the resolution date.