TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan?
🌟New
kalshi

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan?

Oct 13, 2026, 10:30 AM EST - Oct 29, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$23,370
Volume 24h:
$20,000N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$21,057
219%

Democrat

 - Kalshi

Democrat - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 29, 2026

Time left: 14d:09h:18m

What will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Monroe, Michigan originally scheduled for October 15, 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 30% Illiquid market 14 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Democrat

Trade
99%
5%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$3,633
247%
N/A
$3,296
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Election

Trade
94%
1%
Yes 94¢No 9¢
3¢
N/A
$137
12%
N/A
$133
2w 9h
active
kalshi

2028 / Campaign

Trade
91%
1%
Yes 91¢No 13¢
4¢
N/A
$103
56%
N/A
$103
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Biden

Trade
88%
10%
Yes 89¢No 12¢
1¢
N/A
$748
339%
N/A
$732
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Border

Trade
84%
Yes 87¢No 16¢
3¢
N/A
$40
0%
N/A
$38
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Auto Worker / Autoworker

Trade
83%
Yes 83¢No 23¢
6¢
N/A
$170
0%
N/A
$154
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Economy / Economic

Trade
78%
5%
Yes 78¢No 26¢
4¢
N/A
$106
1,379%
N/A
$106
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Fraud

Trade
76%
Yes 76¢No 27¢
3¢
N/A
$92
0%
N/A
$85
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Social Security

Trade
75%
Yes 76¢No 30¢
6¢
N/A
$51
0%
N/A
$49
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime

Trade
72%
24%
Yes 75¢No 33¢
8¢
N/A
$1,264
587%
N/A
$1,079
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Manufacture / Manufacturing

Trade
68%
Yes 68¢No 36¢
4¢
N/A
$368
0%
N/A
$368
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Illegal Alien

Trade
66%
Yes 70¢No 34¢
4¢
N/A
$488
0%
N/A
$436
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Inflation

Trade
66%
Yes 66¢No 35¢
1¢
N/A
$354
141%
N/A
$327
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Working Class / Middle Class

Trade
61%
1%
Yes 61¢No 48¢
9¢
N/A
$1,210
317%
N/A
$987
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

Trade
61%
19%
Yes 61¢No 40¢
1¢
N/A
$503
1,389%
N/A
$500
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Tariff

Trade
50%
Yes 54¢No 48¢
2¢
N/A
$634
0%
N/A
$560
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Radical Left

Trade
46%
21%
Yes 46¢No 60¢
6¢
N/A
$2,037
1,867%
N/A
$1,910
2w 9h
active
kalshi

American Dream

Trade
41%
7%
Yes 41¢No 66¢
7¢
N/A
$234
944%
N/A
$224
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Ford / General Motors / GM

Trade
37%
22%
Yes 37¢No 70¢
7¢
N/A
$1,487
199%
N/A
$1,064
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

Trade
37%
2%
Yes 37¢No 72¢
9¢
N/A
$1,104
1,001%
N/A
$876
2w 9h
active
kalshi

China / Chinese

Trade
35%
13%
Yes 35¢No 69¢
4¢
N/A
$411
324%
N/A
$386
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Healthcare

Trade
35%
Yes 35¢No 71¢
6¢
N/A
$307
0%
N/A
$307
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Fake News

Trade
32%
Yes 32¢No 78¢
10¢
N/A
$659
0%
N/A
$540
2w 9h
active
kalshi

America First

Trade
27%
Yes 26¢No 77¢
3¢
N/A
$590
0%
N/A
$590
2w 9h
active
kalshi

Canada / Canadian

Trade
25%
Yes 23¢No 79¢
2¢
N/A
$708
0%
N/A
$511
2w 9h
active
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This event tracks specific phrases that JD Vance might mention during a political rally in Monroe, Michigan. The rally's content will be analyzed to determine if any of the predefined topics or terms are addressed by Vance during his speech.

Kalshi

The event consists of multiple markets, each focused on whether JD Vance mentions a specific phrase or topic during his midterm rally in Monroe, Michigan, scheduled for October 15, 2026. Each market has a primary rule stating that if Vance says the specified phrase (e.g., "Democrat," "Biden," "Election," etc.) during the rally, the market resolves to Yes. Resolution relies on video broadcasts or official transcripts from the event. Markets will resolve to No if the event is canceled, postponed beyond qualifications, or if none of the specified phrases are mentioned. If the rally is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days, markets remain open. The "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes if no qualifying phrases are mentioned or if the event fails to occur under normal resolution conditions.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the JD Vance rally comments market displays the current odds for various statements or topics he might address during his Michigan rally. You can view the implied probability of each outcome, along with the total volume traded—currently $23,370—and the 24-hour volume, which is $18,235. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions evolve as new information becomes available. The dashboard is a central hub for understanding the collective forecast regarding the content of Senator Vance's speech.

Currently, this market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While polls and expert opinions attempt to predict what Senator Vance will discuss, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a real-time assessment of probabilities based on actual money at stake. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions can highlight areas where the crowd believes experts are over or underestimating the likelihood of certain comments. It’s important to remember that analysts often rely on stated intentions, while this market reflects expectations of actual behavior.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each statement being made. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the likelihood of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market, where opinions are constantly re-evaluated and reflected in the contract values.

This market is scheduled to resolve around Oct 29, 2026. The outcome will be determined by assessing Senator Vance’s remarks during his rally in Michigan, verified against credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will reflect whether or not the statements outlined in the market options were demonstrably made by Senator Vance during the event. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The resolution will be based on transcripts or reliable recordings of the rally speech, ensuring an objective assessment of the comments delivered.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any pre-rally statements from Senator Vance or his campaign team regarding the intended focus of the speech would likely shift the odds. Major news events occurring between now and the rally, particularly those related to the topics he’s expected to address, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any leaks or credible reports about the planned content of the rally could cause rapid adjustments in the market. Finally, shifts in broader political sentiment or polling data could indirectly affect trading activity in this market.