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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall?
kalshi

What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall?

Oct 15, 2026, 10:30 AM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$39,000
Volume 24h:
$12,926
40%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$29,595
45%

Illegal Alien

 - Kalshi

Illegal Alien - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 8:28 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Illegal Alien

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,160
N/A
N/A
$2,398
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

Election

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,084
N/A
N/A
$2,577
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

Biden

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,802
N/A
N/A
$2,373
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

China / Chinese

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100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,357
N/A
N/A
$1,257
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

Iran / Iranian

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100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,188
N/A
N/A
$1,690
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

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100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,766
N/A
N/A
$1,051
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

Democrat

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100%
1%
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—
N/A
$1,600
N/A
N/A
$1,282
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

2028 / Campaign

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100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,290
N/A
N/A
$1,191
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

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100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,193
N/A
N/A
$834
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

Fraud

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100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,170
N/A
N/A
$826
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

Trump (3+ times)

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100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$928
N/A
N/A
$816
1w 1d 18h
Yes
kalshi

Socialist / Socialism

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0%
91%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,959
N/A
N/A
$2,231
1w 1d 18h
No
kalshi

Israel / Israeli

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0%
75%
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—
N/A
$2,771
N/A
N/A
$1,840
1w 1d 18h
No
kalshi

Event does not qualify

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0%
1%
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—
N/A
$1,984
N/A
N/A
$1,979
1w 1d 18h
No
kalshi

America First

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0%
15%
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—
N/A
$1,915
N/A
N/A
$1,538
1w 1d 18h
No
kalshi

Inflation

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0%
90%
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—
N/A
$1,429
N/A
N/A
$1,270
1w 1d 18h
No
kalshi

Ceasefire

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0%
7%
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—
N/A
$1,373
N/A
N/A
$1,078
1w 1d 18h
No
kalshi

Tariff

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0%
91%
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—
N/A
$1,318
N/A
N/A
$930
1w 1d 18h
No
kalshi

Medicare / Medicaid

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0%
40%
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—
N/A
$1,044
N/A
N/A
$921
1w 1d 18h
No
kalshi

Healthcare

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0%
90%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$903
N/A
N/A
$794
1w 1d 18h
No
kalshi

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

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0%
90%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$765
N/A
N/A
$719
1w 1d 18h
No
Total markets: 21

Description

During a scheduled town hall, observers will track whether specific political and policy-related terms are used by a speaker in an official capacity. The focus is on direct, on-camera statements made during the live broadcast, excluding off-mic or unaired content.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether Vice President JD Vance utters specified exact phrases during the live CBS Town Hall broadcast on October 17, 2026. Resolution relies primarily on reviewing the live video stream; if inconclusive, official transcripts serve as tiebreakers. Markets exclude unaired content, archival footage, or off-camera remarks. If the event is canceled, the "Event does not qualify" market wins, nullifying others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets active. Each market’s outcome hinges solely on the presence or absence of its designated keyword or phrase within the official broadcast window.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the JD Vance town hall market tracks the current odds of various statements being made by Senator Vance during his CBS town hall. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $17,153. Total volume for this market is $39,000. This allows traders to see how sentiment is shifting and identify potential opportunities as the event approaches.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding what Senator Vance will discuss. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time assessments of likelihood. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions can highlight areas where traders perceive information differently or anticipate unexpected developments during the town hall. It’s a dynamic comparison, as both sources adjust their views as new information emerges.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements by Senator Vance, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probability of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective belief of all participants about the likelihood of each statement being made, creating a dynamic and responsive assessment of the event. As more traders participate, the prices tend to converge towards a more accurate representation of the expected outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a review of the official transcript or video recording of the CBS town hall with Senator Vance. The market will determine which statements were actually made during the event, and payouts will be awarded accordingly. Traders should monitor news coverage following the town hall to understand how the market will be settled.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any pre-released excerpts from the town hall, statements made by Senator Vance’s staff, or shifts in the broader political landscape could all influence trading activity. Major news events related to the topics likely to be discussed, such as economic data or policy announcements, could also move the market. Increased media attention or prominent endorsements could also shift trader sentiment and alter the odds in this market.