TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 30, 8:15 PM EST
Kalshi
JD Vance is scheduled to appear as a guest on Fox News' The Ingraham Angle program. These markets track whether he uses specific words or phrases during his on-air remarks in an official capacity during the live broadcast or stream.
Resolution is based on JD Vance speaking in an official capacity during the live broadcast or stream of Fox News: The Ingraham Angle. Video will be the primary source for resolution, with official transcripts used if video consensus cannot be reached. Each market resolves Yes if the exact word or phrase is used, including plural or possessive forms; grammatical and tense inflections are not required. Promotional content aired during the event counts, but advertisements do not. Previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings from separate times or events do not count. If JD Vance is absent or does not speak in an official capacity (such as inaudible private conversations or unofficial statements), the event does not qualify and all markets resolve No. If the event is cancelled or fails to qualify under these criteria, the "Event does not qualify" market resolves Yes and all other markets resolve No. If postponed with announcement by the end of the following calendar day to a date within 14 calendar days, markets remain open.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and continuous price discovery rather than static polling snapshots. In this market, traders are directly wagering on what JD Vance will actually say, creating dynamic odds that adjust as new reporting, statements, or context emerges. Analysts may offer point estimates or qualitative assessments, but this market aggregates dispersed information from many participants betting their own capital, potentially capturing nuances that surveys or expert commentary miss.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different possible statements or topics. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome is quoted as a percentage probability, and the bid-ask spread reflects the current consensus and liquidity. As traders place orders, prices adjust in real time, allowing you to enter or exit positions at market rates or set limit orders to trade at your preferred price.
This market resolves around Jul 15, 2026, after the Fox News: The Ingraham Angle broadcast airs and sufficient time has passed for the episode content to be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual statements made during the appearance against the specific claims or topics defined by each outcome option. Once the broadcast is publicly available and credible sources confirm what was said, the market settles based on which outcome occurred.
Several catalysts could shift odds before resolution. Breaking news about JD Vance's schedule, statements, or controversies may change expectations about what he will address on air. Pre-broadcast interviews, official announcements about the episode's focus, or trending political developments could all influence trader positioning. Additionally, any public comments from Fox News or the Vice President's office hinting at topics to be discussed would likely trigger repricing. Market activity typically accelerates as the broadcast date approaches and more concrete information becomes available.