TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 11:49 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether James Corden mentions specific words or phrases during FOX's FIFA World Cup After Hours broadcast special. Resolution depends on detecting exact word matches, including plural and possessive forms, from the live broadcast or official stream.
Resolution is determined by monitoring the complete live broadcast or stream of FOX: FIFA World Cup on Fox After Hours with James Corden for the exact utterance of specified terms. The exact phrase or word must be used, including plural or possessive forms, though other grammatical and tense inflections are not required. Plural nouns within proper nouns and noun phrases are included. Video of the broadcast serves as the primary resolution source; if consensus cannot be reached via video, official internal and external transcripts will be consulted. Only content from the original live broadcast or stream counts toward resolution—additional content does not. Promotional material aired during the event is included, but advertisements are excluded. The entirety of the original broadcast content is reviewed for resolution purposes. If the event is postponed and rescheduled within 14 calendar days with announcement by the end of the following calendar day, markets remain open.
Prediction market odds reflect real-money commitments from traders betting on specific outcomes, whereas traditional analyst forecasts rely on expert opinion and historical models. This market aggregates distributed knowledge from many participants with financial incentives to be accurate, often capturing signals faster than conventional media analysis. Analyst predictions tend to be more conservative and slower to update, while prediction markets react dynamically to new information. Both approaches offer value: markets excel at pricing uncertainty and capturing crowd intelligence, while expert forecasts provide narrative context and domain-specific reasoning that raw odds alone cannot convey.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome has a bid-ask spread reflecting the current supply and demand balance. Prices range from near zero to near one hundred, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. As traders place orders, the spreads tighten or widen based on conviction and liquidity. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery, and all historical trades are visible on the order history, allowing you to track how sentiment has evolved.
This market resolves around Jul 16, 2026, once the World Cup broadcast on Fox After Hours concludes and the relevant statements or phrases can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing Corden's actual commentary against the specific claims or language outlined in each outcome option. Resolution relies on credible public reporting and video evidence from the broadcast itself. Traders should monitor the event closely as the date approaches, since live broadcasts can produce unexpected moments that shift final settlement.
Several factors could shift odds before resolution. Announcements about Corden's involvement in World Cup coverage, changes to the broadcast format, or news about his recent public statements may influence trader expectations. Media commentary speculating on his on-air personality and typical catchphrases could drive trading activity. Closer to Jul 16, 2026, promotional clips or previews of the broadcast may provide clues about tone and content. Additionally, broader cultural moments or trending topics during the tournament could affect how traders assess the likelihood of specific phrases or commentary styles appearing on air.