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404,175

Markets across

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MATCHED EVENTS:

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PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of September 21 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of September 21 2026?

Volume:
$164,133

Above $4338

 - Kalshi

Above $4338 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $4338

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,600
N/A
N/A
$4,875
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,250

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,499
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4328

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,404
N/A
N/A
$1,750
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4288

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,013
N/A
N/A
$3,013
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4318

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,905
N/A
N/A
$1,190
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4308

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,551
N/A
N/A
$1,469
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,300

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,390
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,350

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,299
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,300

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,300

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,148
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,300

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$895
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4298

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$857
N/A
N/A
$853
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4258

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$521
N/A
N/A
$391
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4248

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$386
N/A
N/A
$386
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4188

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$282
N/A
N/A
$282
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,350

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4268

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$153
N/A
N/A
$153
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4208

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4198

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4218

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4278

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4228

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4238

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
$19
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,350

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.2¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4358

View
0%
62%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,977
N/A
N/A
$6,504
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 63

Description

These markets ask forecasters to predict whether the price of Gold (XAUUSD) will reach specific levels during the week of September 21, 2026. The markets cover a range of price points, from $4188 to $4578 on Kalshi and from $4150 to $4700 on Polymarket.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The resolution criteria differ significantly between platforms regarding the timing and scope of price achievement. Kalshi requires a specific closing price at a fixed time, while Polymarket requires any price hit during the week.Hero tip: Consider the differing resolution criteria when trading. Kalshi markets require precise timing, while Polymarket markets offer a wider window for resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if any 1-minute candlestick during the week of September 21, 2026, reaches or exceeds the specified price (High or Low). Source: Pyth data. "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of September 21 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final 'High' or 'Low' price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price."
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 21, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT closes above a specified price. "If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above [price], then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of September 21 2026?

Kalshi

Multiple markets exist with varying threshold prices for the closing value of a one-minute candlestick for gold on September 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. Each market resolves to "Yes" if the recorded close price exceeds its specific threshold. The settlement value is determined by rounding the actual close price to the nearest two decimal places. The close price for the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading activity from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM, with the price recorded at exactly 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published for the specified time, the most recently available published data is used to resolve all markets. All markets share these consistent secondary rules for data verification and rounding.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or institutional pressures, while this market aggregates the opinions of a diverse range of participants with financial incentives to be accurate. While analyst forecasts can provide valuable insights, the wisdom of the crowd in this market can sometimes identify discrepancies or overlooked factors. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view on the future price of gold. The current volume of $164,133 suggests a strong level of engagement with this question.

Several factors could significantly impact the price of gold and, consequently, this market. Major macroeconomic announcements, such as interest rate decisions by central banks or inflation data releases, are key catalysts. Geopolitical events, including political instability or trade disputes, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected shifts in global economic growth forecasts or changes in currency exchange rates could also influence the price. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for anyone seeking to understand and potentially profit from movements in this market.