TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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above $4014
- Kalshi
above $4014 - Kalshi
1W
News
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Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 3, 2026
Latest in Commodities
Closed: Jun 29, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group aggregates predictions on gold (XAUUSD) price levels during the week of June 29, 2026. Across three platforms, markets are structured as binary YES/NO outcomes tied to whether gold will reach, touch, or close above specific price thresholds during that trading week.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Three distinct measurement methodologies create divergent resolution outcomes: Kalshi uses a single close price at 5:00 PM EDT on June 29, Polymarket uses any high or low during the entire trading week, and Opinion uses unspecified broad price bands. The same underlying gold price movement can produce different YES/NO outcomes across platforms.Hero tip: Kalshi markets are narrow point-in-time bets on June 29 closing price only. Polymarket markets are week-long touch bets on whether the price ever reaches the level. Opinion markets lack specificity. For hedging, use Polymarket for directional week-long exposure and Kalshi for precise June 29 close price bets. Do not assume they will resolve identically.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Point-in-time close price measurement. Resolves YES only if the 1-minute candle close price at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on June 29, 2026 exceeds the specified threshold. Offers 40 distinct price levels from 3834 to 4224 USD/oz in 10 USD increments. Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on June 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above [X] USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Week-long high/low touch measurement. Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle during the entire trading week of June 29 (Sunday 6:00 PM ET through Friday 5:00 PM ET) achieves a high or low equal to or beyond the listed price. Offers approximately 16 distinct price levels from 3750 to 4400 USD/oz. Uses Pyth as primary source with CME COMEX Gold Futures as fallback. Key Quote: 'at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of June 29 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final High or Low price equal to or beyond the listed price.'
- Opinion: Broad price band classification. Markets are structured as binary outcomes on whether gold will fall within specified price ranges ($3,800-$4,200, $4,200-$4,600, $4,600-$5,000, $5,000-$5,400, $5,400-$5,800, $5,800-$6,200, plus below $3,800 and above $6,200). No explicit measurement methodology, timing specification, or data source provided. Key Quote: Price bands only, no resolution criteria stated.
Polymarket
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of June 29 2026?
Kalshi
Settlement is determined by the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM EDT on June 29, 2026. The close price represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval; for example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the settlement price exceeds that threshold. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
Opinion
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Frequently asked questions
Federal Reserve policy shifts, inflation data releases, and geopolitical tensions typically drive gold price volatility. Currency strength—especially US dollar moves—inversely correlates with bullion demand. Central bank purchases or sales, real interest rate changes, and equity market stress can all trigger sharp repricing in this market. Watch for major economic announcements, banking sector developments, or international conflicts that historically spike safe-haven demand. Technical levels and options expiry dates may also influence trader positioning ahead of the resolution date.
