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405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of August 31 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of August 31 2026?

Volume:
$224,829

Above $4428.99

 - Kalshi

Above $4428.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $4428.99

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,825
N/A
N/A
$5,367
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4408.99

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,836
N/A
N/A
$7,001
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4388.99

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,394
N/A
N/A
$3,038
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4068.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,431
N/A
N/A
$8,302
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,400

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,400

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,734
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4368.99

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,079
N/A
N/A
$2,025
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4328.99

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,263
N/A
N/A
$4,109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4348.99

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,822
N/A
N/A
$1,749
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,300

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,410
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,500

View
100%
81%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,695
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4308.99

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,539
N/A
N/A
$610
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,450

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,050
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4088.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$389
N/A
N/A
$389
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,350

View
100%
53%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,960
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,450

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,400

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,400

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,019
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4268.99

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$269
N/A
N/A
$266
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4,450

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4188.99

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$185
N/A
N/A
$183
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4288.99

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$122
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $4,450

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$121
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4208.99

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
$78
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4248.99

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$89
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 67

Description

This event group tracks whether Gold (XAUUSD) will reach specific high or low price thresholds during the week of August 31, 2026. Markets on Polymarket evaluate any 1-minute candle high or low during the entire trading week, while Kalshi markets focus solely on the closing price of a single specific candlestick on September 4, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Divergent evaluation windows and criteria: Polymarket uses entire week high/low scans; Kalshi uses single closing tick on specific dateHero tip: Polymarket markets have higher probability of resolving 'Yes' due to broader evaluation window. Kalshi markets depend entirely on one closing tick — extremely binary outcome. Prefer Polymarket for week-wide volatility expectations; use Kalshi only with precise timing conviction.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if ANY 1-minute candle high/low during the ENTIRE trading week of August 31, 2026 (Sunday-Friday sessions) reaches or exceeds the listed price. Uses Pyth 1-minute candle data as primary source.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes ONLY if the CLOSE price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above the listed price. Single data point determines outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of August 31 2026?

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2026. For any market with a specified threshold (e.g., above $4068.99, above $4088.99, etc.), if the closing price meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places. The closing price for the 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT is defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (i.e., the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM, which reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM). If no data is published by the specified source agency for the given timestamp, the most recently available published data will be used to determine the settlement outcome. All markets share these consistent rules for data retrieval and rounding.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the gold price milestone market aggregates betting activity across multiple venues, giving you a real-time consensus view of where traders think gold prices will land. It shows the latest probabilities and volume of $224,829 from all participating platforms. By tracking this market, users can see how expectations shift as we approach the key week, with data pulled live from leading prediction markets. The view combines inputs from all platforms to reflect the broadest possible sentiment on where gold might breach specific levels.