TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 5, 12:08 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track whether specific words or phrases are mentioned by Eli Lilly representatives during their August 7, 2026 earnings call, including the Q&A session. Resolution is based on video evidence first, with transcripts used as backup if needed, requiring exact word matches or their plural/possessive forms.
During Eli Lilly and Company's earnings call on August 7, 2026, resolution occurs if any company representative or call operator speaks any of the tracked terms: Vial, Walmart, Pennsylvania, LillyDirect, Tariff, Nvidia, AI/Artificial Intelligence, Inluriyo, Ventyx, China, Foundayo, Headwind, Tailwind, Novo Nordisk, or Alzheimer. The exact phrase or word must be used, including plural or possessive forms, though grammatical and tense inflections are not required. Resolution determination prioritizes video evidence from the earnings call; if Kalshi employees cannot reach consensus from video alone, official transcripts from major news publications will serve as the authoritative source. Partial matches, paraphrasing, or contextual references that do not include the exact word do not qualify for resolution.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced interpretation of expected announcements. While analysts may provide detailed guidance based on models and historical data, traders on Kalshi adjust prices based on current sentiment, recent news, and perceived market moves, which can sometimes lead to notable differences in expected outcomes.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact determination depends on the official earnings call transcript and any contemporaneous press releases, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process aligned with Kalshi's verification standards.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including pre-earnings leaks, analyst day updates, regulatory filings, and broader industry news affecting investor sentiment. Any public statement or media report from Eli Lilly leadership, as well as market reactions to competitor announcements, may also cause traders on Kalshi to adjust their positions and reshape the odds.