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2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?
kalshi

What will David Muir say during ABC World News Tonight?

Volume:
$43,975

Trump

 - Kalshi

Trump - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 15, 2026

Closed: Jul 15, 7:05 PM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Trump

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,431
N/A
N/A
$5,417
Settled
Yes
kalshi

ICE

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,797
N/A
N/A
$3,796
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Taco Bell

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,380
N/A
N/A
$3,196
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Iran (3+ times)

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,293
N/A
N/A
$2,809
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,117
N/A
N/A
$3,107
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Daylight

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,142
N/A
N/A
$2,097
Settled
Yes
kalshi

World Cup

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,131
N/A
N/A
$2,119
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Oil / Gas / Gasoline

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,963
N/A
N/A
$6,310
Settled
No
kalshi

Blanche

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,807
N/A
N/A
$3,742
Settled
No
kalshi

Speech / Address

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,291
N/A
N/A
$2,907
Settled
No
kalshi

AI / Artificial Intelligence

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,310
N/A
N/A
$2,183
Settled
No
kalshi

Ceasefire

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,066
N/A
N/A
$1,830
Settled
No
kalshi

Biden

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,247
N/A
N/A
$1,220
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event tracks whether David Muir mentions specific words or phrases during the next live broadcast of ABC World News Tonight occurring after July 15th, 2026 at 5:55 PM ET. Resolution is based on video of the live broadcast, with official transcripts used as backup if needed.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by monitoring David Muir's spoken statements during the live broadcast or stream of ABC World News Tonight occurring after July 15th, 2026 at 5:55 PM ET. The exact phrase or word must be used, including plural or possessive forms, though other grammatical inflections are not required. Plural nouns within proper nouns and noun phrases are included. Only content from the original live broadcast counts; additional content not included in the broadcast does not count. Promotional content aired during the event counts toward resolution, but advertisements do not. Video of the broadcast serves as the primary resolution source; if Kalshi employees cannot reach consensus using video, internal and external official transcripts of the broadcast will be used. The entirety of content within the original broadcast is used for resolution purposes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the David Muir quote prediction market on Kalshi displays real-time odds on what the anchor will say during his broadcast. Traders monitor the current price of the leading outcome, historical price movements, and total trading volume of $43,975 across all outcomes. The 24-hour volume of $42,289 reflects recent market activity and trader interest. This live data helps participants gauge consensus expectations and identify shifts in sentiment as the broadcast date approaches.

Prediction markets aggregate real-time trader bets, often capturing sentiment faster than traditional analyst surveys. In this market, the odds reflect what participants collectively believe the anchor will say, based on recent news cycles, typical broadcast patterns, and historical precedent. Unlike static analyst forecasts, these odds update continuously as new information emerges. Traders who spot gaps between market prices and their own research can profit by taking opposing positions, which naturally drives prices toward more accurate levels over time.

This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, once the broadcast has aired and the anchor's actual statements can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing what was said during the program against the specific outcomes listed in the market. Credible public sources, including broadcast recordings and transcripts, are used to confirm which outcome occurred. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout once verification is complete.

Breaking news in the days leading up to the broadcast could shift trader expectations about which topics or quotes are most likely. Major political developments, economic announcements, or international events often influence the anchor's opening remarks and coverage priorities. Shifts in social media discussion or trending topics may also signal what will dominate the newscast. Additionally, any public statements or hints from the network about planned segments can move odds. Traders monitor these signals closely to adjust positions before the broadcast airs.