TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$266,367,375
24H TRANSACTIONS:
960,901,819
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,196,061,598
832,481
Markets across
15,126
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
961
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Description
This event tracks whether David Muir mentions specific words or phrases during the next live broadcast of ABC World News Tonight occurring after July 15th, 2026 at 5:55 PM ET. Resolution is based on video of the live broadcast, with official transcripts used as backup if needed.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by monitoring David Muir's spoken statements during the live broadcast or stream of ABC World News Tonight occurring after July 15th, 2026 at 5:55 PM ET. The exact phrase or word must be used, including plural or possessive forms, though other grammatical inflections are not required. Plural nouns within proper nouns and noun phrases are included. Only content from the original live broadcast counts; additional content not included in the broadcast does not count. Promotional content aired during the event counts toward resolution, but advertisements do not. Video of the broadcast serves as the primary resolution source; if Kalshi employees cannot reach consensus using video, internal and external official transcripts of the broadcast will be used. The entirety of content within the original broadcast is used for resolution purposes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets aggregate real-time trader bets, often capturing sentiment faster than traditional analyst surveys. In this market, the odds reflect what participants collectively believe the anchor will say, based on recent news cycles, typical broadcast patterns, and historical precedent. Unlike static analyst forecasts, these odds update continuously as new information emerges. Traders who spot gaps between market prices and their own research can profit by taking opposing positions, which naturally drives prices toward more accurate levels over time.
This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, once the broadcast has aired and the anchor's actual statements can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing what was said during the program against the specific outcomes listed in the market. Credible public sources, including broadcast recordings and transcripts, are used to confirm which outcome occurred. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout once verification is complete.
Breaking news in the days leading up to the broadcast could shift trader expectations about which topics or quotes are most likely. Major political developments, economic announcements, or international events often influence the anchor's opening remarks and coverage priorities. Shifts in social media discussion or trending topics may also signal what will dominate the newscast. Additionally, any public statements or hints from the network about planned segments can move odds. Traders monitor these signals closely to adjust positions before the broadcast airs.
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