TOTAL VOLUME:
$146.6b
24H VOL:
$161,047,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,781,800,361
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,744,915,607
504,917
Markets across
37,612
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,946
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Private Market
- Kalshi
Private Market - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 28, 2027
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The event tracks whether specific predefined terms are mentioned by BlackRock representatives during their upcoming earnings call. Each term represents a potential topic of discussion, and the outcome depends on the verbal acknowledgment of these terms during the broadcast.
The event resolves based on whether any BlackRock representative, including the operator of the call, utters any of the specified terms during the live earnings call or its official broadcast, including the Q+A session. Resolution relies primarily on video footage of the call; if video consensus cannot be reached by Kalshi employees, transcripts from designated news publications will be used. Payouts depend on the exact phrase or its plural/possessive form being spoken, excluding grammatical or tense variations. Kalshi clarifies it holds no affiliation with BlackRock, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market can reflect a broader range of potential outcomes than traditional analyst reports, which may focus on a narrower set of expectations. If analysts widely anticipate a specific topic to be discussed, but the market assigns a lower probability to it, this suggests traders believe other issues might take precedence during the BlackRock earnings call. This difference in perspective can be valuable for understanding overall market sentiment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether certain topics will be mentioned during the BlackRock earnings call. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can set their own prices, and the market continuously adjusts to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will climb.
This market resolves around Jan 28, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript of the BlackRock earnings call, and whether key phrases or topics were mentioned during the call. The market will determine which outcomes align with the actual content of the earnings call, providing a clear and objective result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how it impacted their positions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding BlackRock's financial performance, strategic direction, or potential regulatory challenges could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those impacting the financial sector, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, statements from BlackRock executives outside of the formal earnings call, or leaks about the call's content, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market as traders adjust their predictions.