TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 1, 2026
Time left: 17d:10h:17m
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This market tracks whether Bernie Sanders will mention specific topics during a rally, focusing on key themes relevant to his political messaging. The outcome depends on his actual speech content during the event.
The event involves multiple markets, each resolving based on whether Bernie Sanders utters specific phrases during his rally. Resolution relies on live video broadcasts or official transcripts if video consensus isn't reached. Markets only count exact phrase matches in an official capacity, excluding unaired content or private remarks. If the rally is canceled, the “Event does not qualify” market wins, nullifying others. Postponements within 14 days keep markets open. Each market’s payout hinges solely on the presence or absence of its designated phrase in the speech.
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts aren’t available for this specific event. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and can reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially offering a different perspective than individual expert predictions. This market allows traders to express their beliefs about what Senator Sanders will say, and the resulting odds can be seen as a probabilistic forecast based on collective intelligence. It’s a unique way to gauge expectations surrounding the rally.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of each statement being made. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth – the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels – indicates how easily traders can enter and exit positions, and influences price stability.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on a transcript or reliable recording of Senator Sanders’ remarks during the Tallahassee rally. The outcome will be determined by whether or not each statement in the market was demonstrably uttered by Senator Sanders during the event. The outcome is determined by verifiable evidence, not by subjective interpretation or opinion.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding Senator Sanders’ planned remarks, such as previews of his speech or statements about his intended focus, could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected political developments or current events that might prompt him to address specific topics could also have a major impact. Furthermore, increased media attention surrounding the rally or shifts in public sentiment regarding key issues could drive trading volume and change the probabilities reflected in this market.