TOTAL VOLUME:
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406,065
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MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
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Kalshi:
61%
Douglas Michael Basler
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Vol.
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Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 5, 8:20 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Adam Smith will advance from the 2026 Washington's 9th congressional district primary election. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that Smith advances—currently stands at 98.0%. The market resolves based on official primary results as determined by the resolution source. Smith, the incumbent representative, faces competition in a district that has historically favored Democratic candidates. Watch for the primary election results on November 3, 2026, which will determine whether Smith secures one of the two advancement slots from the primary contest.
Kalshi
Each candidate in the WA-09 primary advances based on their performance in the 2026 primary election. The top two advancers from the primary will resolve to Yes, meaning any candidate who finishes in the top two positions will be confirmed as having advanced.
Frequently asked questions
The market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official results of Washington's 9th congressional district primary election. The market will settle based on which candidates officially advance to the general election according to state election authorities and certified results. Traders should monitor official announcements and election commission statements as the primary date approaches to understand how outcomes will be confirmed.
Key catalysts include candidate endorsements from state or national figures, campaign spending reports and fundraising announcements, debate performances, local media coverage, and shifts in voter registration or turnout expectations. Primary polling releases often trigger sharp price moves as traders reassess frontrunners. Late-breaking scandals, candidate withdrawals, or unexpected coalition shifts can reshape the race. Ground-game developments, early voting data, and last-minute campaign pivots in the final weeks before Nov 3, 2026 typically generate the most volatility in WA-09 primary odds.
