TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 11:01 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks Victoria's Secret's performance by measuring how much its comparable sales increase in the second quarter of 2026. Comparable sales growth reflects changes in sales at stores open for at least a year, offering insight into consumer demand and operational efficiency. The outcome depends on whether the reported growth exceeds specific thresholds.
The event resolves based on Victoria's Secret & Co.'s reported total comparable sales growth for Q2 2026, with multiple threshold-based markets determining the outcome. Each market corresponds to a specific growth percentage threshold (4%, 6%, 8%, 10%, 12%, and 14%). If the company reports growth above any of these thresholds, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share identical secondary disclaimers stating that Kalshi has no official affiliation with Victoria's Secret, and that all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners. The resolution hinges solely on the precise figure disclosed for Q2 2026 comparable sales growth, with each threshold creating a distinct yes/no outcome.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate expectation of all participants. The market uses a log-odds pricing model that translates trader interest into implied probabilities, and volume of $4,782 helps indicate how much capital is actively engaged in positioning around the sales growth question.
This market resolves around Dec 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final sales growth figure will be drawn from Victoria’s Secret parent company quarterly earnings releases and official SEC filings, ensuring an objective and transparent close-out process for all open positions.
Key signals that could shift this market include preliminary sales data leaks, management guidance updates during investor calls, major marketing campaign performance, consumer confidence shifts affecting retail spending, and competitor moves that alter market share dynamics. Any surprise announcement — positive or negative — is likely to cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust expectations for the final reported growth rate.