TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Vermont Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Vermont Governor election?

Total volume:
$782,076
Volume 24h:
$9,739
44%
Liquidity:
$236,082
12%
Open interest:
$315,615
1%

Republican party

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 5, 2027

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont

77%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 77¢ buys you 130 shares | Odds: 77% Total Payout: $130 | Net Profit: $30 Multiplier: 1.30x | ROI: 30% | APY: 220% 82 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
77%
Yes 77¢No 24¢
1¢
N/A
$294,609
1%
14%
$169,217
2mo 3w 1d
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
75%
Yes 75¢No 26¢
1¢
$108,013
$116,994
0.61%
8%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
76.3%
Yes 76¢No 25¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
25%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
N/A
$249,896
1%
13%
$146,398
2mo 3w 1d
active
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
25%
Yes 25¢No 75.7¢
0.7¢
$128,070
$120,578
2%
17%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
24.9%
Yes 25¢No 75.9¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks which party will win the governorship of Vermont in the 2026 election. Currently, the consensus probability favors a Republican victory at 76.0%, while the Democrats are at 24.9%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (Polymarket) and the inauguration of the elected governor (Kalshi). Traders should watch the Vermont primary elections scheduled for August 2026, as these results will significantly shape the competitive landscape and potential outcomes of the general election.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms define resolution based on the inauguration of a candidate affiliated with either the Republican or Democratic party, utilizing similar sources for verification.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (Polymarket) / Inauguration of the elected governor (Kalshi)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is determined by the official outcome of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
  • A candidate is considered to represent a party if they are the party's nominee.
  • Independent candidates are not encompassed by the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' options.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official certification of the election results will determine the winner, and markets will resolve accordingly.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a major party nominee withdraws before the election, markets will likely remain open, and resolution will still be based on the outcome of the election with the remaining candidates.
Timing: Markets will resolve once the winning candidate is inaugurated as governor of Vermont, following official certification of the election results and confirmation by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which party's representative is inaugurated as governor of Vermont following the 2026 election. A Democratic party representative or Republican party representative being inaugurated resolves the market to Yes for their respective outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities of different outcomes in the Vermont Governor election. It aggregates data from both platforms to provide a consensus view of expectations. Currently, the combined volume across these markets is $782,076, with $9,463 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of where the crowd believes the election is headed, offering a unique perspective beyond traditional polling. The dashboard reflects the collective wisdom of traders on both venues regarding the Vermont Governor election.

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct signal compared to traditional polling averages. Polling reflects stated preferences, while this market reflects incentivized beliefs – traders put their money where their predictions are. While both can be valuable, prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate, especially closer to the event date, as they incorporate a wider range of information and are continuously updated. The current price action suggests a different narrative than some recent polls, and it's important to consider both sources when evaluating the Vermont Governor election.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform also attracts different types of traders, leading to varying interpretations of available information. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont at 74.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont at 77.0%. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the importance of considering multiple sources of information.

This market resolves around Jan 5, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results announced by the Vermont Secretary of State’s office. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and settlement details on both Polymarket and Kalshi following the official announcement. The winning candidate in the Vermont Governor election will determine the outcome of this market.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, unexpected shifts in polling data, significant campaign finance disclosures, and any unforeseen controversies surrounding the candidates could all move the odds. Debates and candidate town halls are also key catalysts, as they provide opportunities for candidates to sway public opinion. Any news impacting the Vermont political landscape could influence trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market. A major national political trend could also influence the Vermont Governor election.