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UST par yield curve (5Y) at end of Q2 2026
kalshi

UST par yield curve (5Y) at end of Q2 2026

Volume:
$13,375

Above 3.30%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.30% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 3:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.30%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,322
N/A
N/A
$272
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.20%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,670
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.10%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,359
N/A
N/A
$1,357
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.50%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,261
N/A
N/A
$616
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.00%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$666
N/A
N/A
$666
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,004
N/A
N/A
$1,149
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.40%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,469
N/A
N/A
$1,468
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.70%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,202
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.50%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$817
N/A
N/A
$206
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$606
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.40%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.60%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.70%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.80%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.90%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.30%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks whether the U.S. Treasury's 5-year yield curve rate will exceed 3.50% by the end of the second quarter of 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the 5Y UST par yield will be above 3.20%—stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate for June 30, 2026, as published by the Treasury Department. Watch the Treasury's yield curve readings throughout Q2 2026 as the June 30 assessment date approaches to gauge market expectations for intermediate-term borrowing costs.

Kalshi

If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.20%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.30%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.40%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.60%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.70%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.80%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.90%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.10%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.20%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.30%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.40%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.60%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.70%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The PredictionHero dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the UST par yield curve (5Y) at end of Q2 2026 event on Kalshi. You can monitor the current probability that the 5-year US Treasury par yield curve will exceed 3.30% by the close of Q2 2026, along with live price movements, historical odds trends, and 24-hour trading volume. The dashboard displays aggregate group volume of $13,375 across all traders participating in this event, helping you gauge market conviction and liquidity as the resolution date approaches.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader expectations about Treasury yields, often incorporating forward guidance, inflation data, and Fed policy signals faster than traditional analyst surveys. While Wall Street economists publish quarterly yield forecasts based on macroeconomic models, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from thousands of participants with direct financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing the current market probability to consensus analyst estimates for 5-year Treasury yields in mid-2026 can reveal whether traders expect a more hawkish or dovish outcome than the mainstream consensus.

The UST par yield curve (5Y) at end of Q2 2026 market resolves on Jul 7, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official 5-year US Treasury par yield curve value published at or near the close of Q2 2026. The binary outcome depends on whether that official yield level closes above or below the 3.30% threshold specified in the contract. Traders holding positions at resolution receive payouts based on the final determination.

The 5-year Treasury yield is highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations, inflation data, employment reports, and global economic conditions. Key catalysts include FOMC meetings and rate decisions, CPI and PCE inflation releases, non-farm payroll reports, and any shifts in Fed forward guidance. Geopolitical tensions, credit market stress, or unexpected fiscal policy changes can also drive yields. Additionally, real-time market repricing of recession probabilities and long-term growth expectations will influence where traders believe the 5-year par yield will settle by end of Q2 2026, directly impacting the contract price on Kalshi.