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404,028

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UST par yield curve (30Y) at end of Q2 2026
kalshi

UST par yield curve (30Y) at end of Q2 2026

Volume:
$17,808

Above 4.90%

 - Kalshi

Above 4.90% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 3:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4.90%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,402
N/A
N/A
$1,321
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.80%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,446
N/A
N/A
$855
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.70%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,312
N/A
N/A
$1,112
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.50%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,237
N/A
N/A
$737
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.00%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,219
N/A
N/A
$1,219
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.60%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,026
N/A
N/A
$1,026
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.40%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$883
N/A
N/A
$574
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.30%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$686
N/A
N/A
$685
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.20%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$612
N/A
N/A
$612
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.10%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$512
N/A
N/A
$512
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,697
N/A
N/A
$3,673
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,822
N/A
N/A
$1,515
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$849
N/A
N/A
$849
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.50%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.30%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.40%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks whether the U.S. Treasury's 30-year yield curve rate will exceed 4.70% by the end of the second quarter of 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year maturity on June 30, 2026, as published by the Treasury Department. Watch the Treasury's yield curve announcement on June 30, 2026, which will serve as the definitive settlement data for this contract.

Kalshi

If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.10%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.20%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.30%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.40%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.60%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.70%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.80%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.90%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 5.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 5.10%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 5.20%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 5.30%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 5.40%, then the market resolves to Yes. If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (30 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 5.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The Odds & Prediction Markets dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time probabilities and trading activity for whether the UST par yield curve at 30 years will exceed 4.50% by the end of Q2 2026. The dashboard displays current odds, historical price movements, and $1,106 in 24-hour volume, helping traders monitor sentiment shifts and liquidity. Total group volume across this event stands at $17,808, reflecting sustained interest in long-term Treasury yield forecasts. This single-venue view provides transparent, up-to-date market pricing for this macroeconomic outcome.

The market resolves on Jul 7, 2026, marking the end of Q2 2026. Resolution is determined by the official UST par yield curve rate at 30 years on that date, as reported by authoritative financial data sources. The binary structure means the contract settles YES if the 30-year yield exceeds 4.50%, and NO otherwise. Traders should monitor Treasury market developments, Federal Reserve communications, inflation trends, and global bond demand in the months leading up to resolution, as these factors directly influence long-term yield levels.

Key drivers of 30-year Treasury yields include Federal Reserve policy decisions and forward guidance, inflation data releases, employment reports, and geopolitical developments affecting safe-haven demand. Stronger-than-expected economic growth typically pushes yields higher, while recession fears or flight-to-quality flows push them lower. International bond yields, particularly German Bunds and UK Gilts, influence US Treasury pricing through relative value. Fiscal policy announcements, debt ceiling negotiations, and changes in Fed balance sheet composition also shape long-term yield expectations. Traders should track FOMC meetings, CPI releases, and major economic surprises through Q2 2026.