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UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q2 2026
kalshi

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q2 2026

Volume:
$11,506

Above 4.10%

 - Kalshi

Above 4.10% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 3:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4.10%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,606
N/A
N/A
$1,730
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.00%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$633
N/A
N/A
$617
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.90%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
$450
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.20%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$0
N/A
N/A
$0
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.30%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,175
N/A
N/A
$1,175
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.40%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$242
N/A
N/A
$242
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.00%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.10%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.30%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.40%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.50%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.60%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.70%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.80%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.50%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Intro

This market tracks whether the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed specific thresholds by the end of June 2026. On Kalshi, the probability that the 2-year UST par yield curve will be above 3.00% stands at 50.0%, while the probability it exceeds 3.50% is also 50.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year maturity on June 30, 2026. Watch the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and economic data releases leading up to the resolution date of July 7, 2026, as these will be primary drivers of short-term Treasury yields.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year maturity on June 30, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific threshold, with resolution to Yes if the official rate exceeds that threshold. Thresholds range from 3.00% to 4.50% in 0.10% increments. The official source for the yield curve rate is the U.S. Department of the Treasury's published daily rates.

Frequently asked questions

The Prediction Markets dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds for whether the UST par yield curve (2Y) will exceed 3.00% at the end of Q2 2026. The dashboard displays the current chance percentage, order book depth, and historical price movements for this binary outcome. You can monitor $11,506 in total group volume and $418 in 24-hour volume to gauge market activity and liquidity. The interface updates continuously, allowing traders to observe how market sentiment shifts as new economic data and Federal Reserve communications emerge.

The market resolves on Jul 7, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official 2-year US Treasury par yield curve value at that date. The outcome hinges on whether the 2Y yield closes above or below the 3.00% threshold. Traders should monitor Treasury market data and Federal Reserve policy announcements leading up to resolution, as interest rate decisions, inflation trends, and economic growth forecasts directly influence where the yield curve settles.

Key catalysts include Federal Reserve policy decisions and forward guidance, particularly any shifts in the terminal rate or rate-cut timeline. Inflation data—especially PCE and CPI releases—will influence market expectations for long-term rates. Employment reports, GDP growth revisions, and geopolitical developments affecting risk sentiment can also drive 2Y yields higher or lower. Treasury supply announcements and changes in demand from foreign central banks may shift the yield curve. Real-time monitoring of Fed speakers, economic surprises, and credit market stress will help traders anticipate moves before resolution.