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USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?
polymarket

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

Oct 3, 2026, 11:46 AM EST - Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$25,085
Volume 24h:
$1,001
50%
Liquidity:
$65,378
20%
Open interest:
$8,757N/A

November 30

 - Polymarket

November 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 30, 2026

Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 30, 2026?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 96.6¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 38% 38 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

November 30

Trade
95%
Yes 96.6¢No 5.9¢
2.5¢
$20,574
$2,550
0%
16%
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

November 15

Trade
86%
6%
Yes 90¢No 19¢
9¢
$1,430
$4,474
11%
128%
N/A
3w 2d 8h
active
polymarket

November 12

Trade
54%
13%
Yes 56¢No 49¢
5¢
$20,322
$1,450
37%
3,526%
N/A
2w 6d 8h
active
polymarket

November 7

Trade
25%
4%
Yes 29¢No 79¢
8¢
$1,403
$5,325
0%
177%
N/A
2w 1d 8h
active
polymarket

November 3

Trade
8%
Yes 10¢No 95¢
5¢
$10,708
$1,323
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 8h
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
4%
2%
Yes 5.7¢No 98.5¢
4.2¢
$10,941
$9,962
2%
41%
N/A
1w 1d 7h
active
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) enters the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Roosevelt will be considered to have entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility or the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The arrival must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, exercises, or other operations outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility, will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will arrive, is en route, or is heading to the Middle East will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying arrival has occurred. A qualifying arrival will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) enters the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Roosevelt will be considered to have entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility or the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The arrival must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, exercises, or other operations outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility, will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will arrive, is en route, or is heading to the Middle East will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying arrival has occurred. A qualifying arrival will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the USS Theodore Roosevelt deployment tracks the current odds of the aircraft carrier arriving in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by a specific date. It displays the implied probability of this occurring, along with the 24-hour trading volume of $995 and the total volume traded to date of $25,085. Users can also view the price history of this market, providing insight into how sentiment has shifted over time. This allows for a clear understanding of where traders currently stand on the likelihood of the deployment timeline.

Currently, the question of whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt will arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026, is being assessed by both analysts and traders. While expert opinions vary, this market provides a unique, real-time assessment based on collective predictions. If analyst forecasts consistently differ from the probabilities reflected in this market, it could suggest differing interpretations of available information or varying levels of confidence in potential geopolitical factors influencing the deployment. It's important to consider both perspectives when evaluating the likelihood of the event.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the USS Theodore Roosevelt arriving in CENTCOM by the specified date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic assessment of the event's likelihood. The current top outcome, 'Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?', has a chance percentage of 95.3%.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt has officially arrived within the CENTCOM area of responsibility by that date. Any official announcements from the U.S. Navy or Department of Defense will be considered, alongside corroborating reports from reputable news organizations. The final determination will be based on publicly available information, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence the price of this market. Major geopolitical developments in the Middle East, such as escalations in regional conflicts or shifts in U.S. foreign policy, would likely have a substantial impact. Announcements regarding the USS Theodore Roosevelt’s deployment schedule, including any delays or accelerations, would also be key catalysts. Furthermore, statements from U.S. military officials or intelligence assessments regarding the security situation in CENTCOM could shift trader sentiment and move the market accordingly. Unexpected events could quickly alter the perceived probability of the deployment.