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USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?
polymarket

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

Oct 3, 2026, 11:44 AM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$45,701
Volume 24h:
$342
23%
Liquidity:
$48,230
0.55%
Open interest:
$2,647N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% | APY: 73% 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
88%
Yes 90¢No 14¢
4¢
$15,673
$8,993
1%
6%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

November 30

Trade
33%
Yes 34¢No 69¢
3¢
$21,680
$30,181
0.1%
6%
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

November 15

Trade
14%
Yes 16¢No 89¢
5¢
$10,877
$6,527
2%
31%
N/A
3w 2d 8h
active
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George Washington (CVN-73) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Washington will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The departure must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS George Washington left the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS George Washington left the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS George Washington left the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, temporary stops, crew liberty at an intermediate port, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, is preparing to depart, or is awaiting relief will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying departure has occurred. A qualifying departure will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George Washington (CVN-73) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Washington will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The departure must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS George Washington left the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS George Washington left the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS George Washington left the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, temporary stops, crew liberty at an intermediate port, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, is preparing to depart, or is awaiting relief will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying departure has occurred. A qualifying departure will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the USS George Washington deployment market tracks the current odds of the aircraft carrier departing CENTCOM before a specific date. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probability has shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $342. The total volume traded on this market is $45,701. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how actively traders are participating in predicting the deployment timeline.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability that the USS George Washington will depart CENTCOM by the resolution date. This contrasts with some initial analyst forecasts, which predicted a later departure window due to ongoing regional instability. However, it’s important to note that prediction markets reflect a broader range of information and real-time assessments than traditional forecasts, incorporating insights from a diverse group of participants. The market’s collective wisdom often provides a more accurate estimate than any single expert’s opinion.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of the USS George Washington departing CENTCOM by the specified date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on official announcements from the U.S. Department of Defense or CENTCOM regarding the USS George Washington’s departure from the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The market will settle based on whether the departure occurred before the specified date, as verified against credible public sources. Traders should monitor news sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any major shifts in geopolitical tensions within the CENTCOM area of responsibility, such as escalations or de-escalations in conflicts, would likely impact the perceived risk and therefore the market price. Official statements from the U.S. Navy or Department of Defense regarding deployment schedules or strategic adjustments would also be key catalysts. Unexpected maintenance requirements or logistical challenges affecting the USS George Washington could also move the market, as could any significant changes in U.S. foreign policy related to the region.