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USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?
polymarket

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

Oct 3, 2026, 11:42 AM EST - Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$13,492
Volume 24h:
$47
85%
Liquidity:
$32,645
19%
Open interest:
$2,851N/A

November 30

 - Polymarket

November 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 30, 2026

Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?

92%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 93¢ buys you 108 shares | Odds: 92% Total Payout: $108 | Net Profit: $8 Multiplier: 1.08x | ROI: 8% | APY: 97% 38 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

November 30

Trade
92%
Yes 93¢No 10¢
3¢
$17,338
$3,195
0%
10%
N/A
1mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
88%
Yes 91¢No 16¢
7¢
$15,308
$10,297
0.45%
18%
N/A
1w 1d 7h
active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) is physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The ship's location will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. European Command, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The ship's location at the specified time may be established by information published after that time. Port calls, temporary stops, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will count as being within the area. Port calls, crew liberty, transits, or other movements outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility (e.g., in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether the ship remains assigned to CENTCOM operations or subsequently returns. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, will return, or is assigned to operations in the region will not by themselves establish its location. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS George H.W. Bush was within the specified area at the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the ship's location at the specified time, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed date. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS George H.W. Bush was within the specified area at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. European Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) is physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The ship's location will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. European Command, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The ship's location at the specified time may be established by information published after that time. Port calls, temporary stops, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will count as being within the area. Port calls, crew liberty, transits, or other movements outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility (e.g., in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether the ship remains assigned to CENTCOM operations or subsequently returns. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, will return, or is assigned to operations in the region will not by themselves establish its location. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS George H.W. Bush was within the specified area at the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the ship's location at the specified time, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed date. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS George H.W. Bush was within the specified area at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. European Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the USS George H.W. Bush deployment market tracks the current odds of various outcomes related to the carrier’s operational area. You can view the implied probabilities, price history, and 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $47. The total volume traded on this market is $13,492. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions evolve as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a clear visualization of the market’s activity, helping participants make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the USS George H.W. Bush’s deployment. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments, this market aggregates the collective judgment of a diverse range of participants. This can lead to differing viewpoints on the likelihood of various scenarios unfolding. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on publicly available information, whereas the wisdom of the crowd reflected in this market can incorporate less visible factors and real-time insights. Examining these differences can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to changes in sentiment and available data. The market’s efficiency stems from the incentive structure, where traders profit from accurately predicting the future.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official operational status of the USS George H.W. Bush as reported by official sources and verified against credible public sources. The specific area of operation that triggers resolution will be determined by the prevailing conditions at the time. Traders should monitor news and official announcements leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential developments that could influence the outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Dec 1, 2026. Any official announcements regarding changes to the USS George H.W. Bush’s deployment orders, including alterations to its area of operation, would likely cause a substantial shift in trading activity. Geopolitical events in the CENTCOM region, such as escalations or de-escalations of conflicts, could also influence market sentiment. Unexpected military exercises or diplomatic developments involving key regional actors could further contribute to price fluctuations within this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the market’s dynamics.