TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of the USD to MXN exchange rate at a specific future date and time. Each market has a different threshold, allowing participants to speculate on whether the exchange rate will exceed various levels by the expiration moment.
All markets resolve based on the USDMXN exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on September 4, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate at that time is above the specified level, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect the resolution.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds reflect a real-time aggregation of trader beliefs and positions. While analysts may provide long-term economic projections, this market incorporates rapid adjustments based on trading activity, news flow, and shifting investor sentiment, often showing sharper or more volatile expectations than conventional research reports.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate wisdom of market participants. The odds adjust dynamically based on trading volume, recent economic data releases, and shifts in currency pair sentiment, creating a liquid price discovery mechanism unique to Kalshi.
This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final USDMXN exchange rate will be determined by authoritative financial data sources at the specified time, and the market will settle accordingly based on that verified value.
Key signals that could move this market include major central bank announcements, shifts in interest rate expectations, geopolitical developments affecting currency flows, and releases of critical economic indicators such as inflation data or employment reports. Each of these can rapidly alter trader expectations and shift odds in either direction before Sep 4, 2026.